Research Director Notes Arbitron's Population Updates
February 17, 2012 at 10:28 AM (PT)
Since ARBITRON will release the JANUARY 2012 PPM data on FEBRUARY 20th-23rd, the RESEARCH DIRECTOR, INC. reminds all broadcasters in PPM markets that ARBITRON is implementing a second round of 2012 population updates effective with the JANUARY 2012 survey, which will reflect the second and final phase of ARBITRON’s incorporation of Census 2010 data in PPM markets.
Whenever populations are updated, any changes have the potential to significantly impact individual station performance in both narrow and broad demographic groups.
ARBITRON, which receives its population data from NIELSEN CLARITAS, based the 2011 population estimates on Census 2000 data that was projected to 2011. Beginning with the OCTOBER 2011 survey, Census 2010 data was projected to 2012 for Persons 6+ (total and ethnic) only, while sex/age population estimates still utilized data from Census 2000 that was projected to 2012. Starting with the JANUARY 2012 survey, the sex/age population estimates will be based on Census 2010, projected to 2012.
RESEARCH DIRECTOR, INC. examined a cross-section of PPM markets. Several metros experienced significant composition changes in discrete demographic cells, both from the estimates used in 2011 and the first 2012 update. An increase in population, with 25-34 for example, can benefit 25-54 stations that focus on the younger portion of this broad demographic group.
Broadcasters are encouraged to examine their market’s new population estimates in order to determine how the population has shifted from both the SEPTEMBER 2011 and Holiday 2011 PPM surveys. It is also important to examine ARBITRON’s sample to see how well it is reflecting the population changes. Finally, broadcasters should look at the ratings in their market to see how the change in population estimates might have positively or negatively affected individual stations.
More info is available at http://www.ResearchDirectorInc.com/newsvault.asp.