Borrell Report Finds Political Advertising On The Rise, But No Big Growth Ahead For Radio
June 30, 2014 at 8:31 AM (PT)
A newly released report from BORRELL sees political advertising on radio moving to webcasters, such as PANDORA.
BORRELL writes, "as poltics in this country has become an endless campaign, with TV and cable outlets the chief beneficiaries. There are 30,000 elections being held across the U.S. this year, injecting what we estimate will be $8.3 billion into the advertising ecosystem. The spending runs from $47,000 for the average town council race up to $23 million for a Senate campaign or $27 million for a gubernatorial race. Close to two-thirds of that money will be spent between JULY 1st and ELECTION DAY. Today, politicians and political organizations spend $37 per eligible voter to sway opinion via media advertising, up 9% from the last mid-term election year. That will zoom to $51 in 2016, a Presidential election year. That’s 21% more than the last Presidential election year in 2012."
"So where does digital media stand in this upward spiral?" asks BORRELL. "It certainly plays a role, but not so much on the 'advertising' side of the digital equation. Spending on online ads is definitely growing -- and poised to explode in two years. But even at a forecast rate of a threefold increase between 2012 and 2016, digital media would still be less than $1 billion, accounting for less than 8% of all political advertising. Most of the activity, it seems, is by digital marketing managers working within the campaigns, managing social media and e-mail communications directly with the electorate. This report details the growth in campaign and issues spending, with a chapter devoted to how digital advertising dollars are being spent, and are likely to continue shifting toward streaming video advertising over the next two years."
U.S. Political Ad Spending In 2014, 2015, 2016, And Change Since 2012
Radio $485.3 5.8% $437.3 6.6% $1,088.1 8.8% 34.4 110.9
BORRELL notes, "although radio’s interest in political online advertising is muted at best, that’s not the case for PANDORA, the online music service that continues to take share from radio station digital efforts. A recent article in THE WALL STREET JOURNAL report describes a strategy just announced by JACK KRAWCZYK, PANDORA’s Dir./Product Management. Using information about a listener’s musical preferences and aligning them by zip code to past voting results, PANDORA can supply targetable groups of listeners tagged by their inferred political inclination. KRAWCZYK estimates these inferences are between 75% to 80% accurate, but agrees that the ultimate proof will be how the ads actually perform."