More Nielsen/Voltair Number Crunching From Randy Kabrich
July 27, 2015 at 4:35 AM (PT)
Last week (NET NEWS 7/21), NIELSEN's decision to finally comment on VOLTAIR -- ruling that the ratings service will not support it, but would make improvements on the PPM instead -- didn't surprise RANDY KABRICH, who considers this entire brouhaha as much ado about very little, if anything. What's worse, VOLTAIR's presence is getting both credit and blame it doesn't deserve.
"So NIELSEN has told you that VOLTAIR does not turn the radio rating world upside down as you know it," he wrote on his blog. "In their testing, they only found the unit to be of some benefit when the background noise was equal or greater to the loudness of the source (your radio station)."
People want facts. People want data.
Later that week, KABRICH was back with some numbers (NET NEWS 7/23), noting, "After my last blog entry, combined with the NIELSEN PPM Webinar, a surprising number of people continue to state in the trades they remain upset by the lack of facts. I find that quite confusing in and of itself, but upon reflection, I realize what good programmers have known for years ... listen to the people – and they want facts!"
TODAY (7/27), KABRICH is back, blogging, "People want facts. People want data. I am still dumbfounded how many continue to believe there are 'magic beans' that can increase your ratings. And I find a failure with myself for not being able to clearly get across the data I have assembled. So, for the later part of the week, I thought, how can I get this down to the least common denominator where it was simple for everyone to see what I have seen? Then it hit me. Could I give just two numbers from NIELSEN data and make it clear?"
So, what are those two numbers? KABRICH continues, "There are a total of 957 competitive facilities in the 48 PPM markets. If you want to dive into how I came up with that number, you can get the details here. In fact, I think I am pretty liberal when I call all those 957 'competitive' and could easily justify removing about 100 from that number. According to statements by TELOS in the trades, when NUMERIS pulled VOLTAIR from the Canadian stations, right about the time the NIELSEN JUNE 2015 PPM ended, over 600 VOLTAIRS had been sold (and shipped) with only a handful (later qualified as about a dozen) of the units going to CANADA. 600 VOLTAIRS divided by 957 'competitive' facilities = 62.6% of the 'competitive' facilities in the JUNE 2015 PPM had a VOLTAIR," adding, "even TELOS’s FRANK FOTI stated in the Industry Webinar I have often referred to, “... VOLTAIRS are in every PPM market, and some markets are approaching 20 units ... I might screw up the phrasing, but I understand that there is a metric ... Average Persons ... I wonder if anyone has looked to see if there is a change in a market'."
KABRICH states, "Why yes FRANK, someone has. The first NIELSEN number: 402.2 = The Total AQH Rating of all stations in the NIELSEN JUNE 2015 (62.6% VOLTAIR) 48 PPM markets Persons 25-54 MONDAY – SUNDAY. The 2nd NIELSEN number: 401.3 = The Total AQH Rating of all stations in the NIELSEN JUNE 2014 (pre-VOLTAIR) in all 48 PPM Markets Persons 25-54 MONDAY – SUNDAY. If your math skills fail you, ask your 5th grader to subtract the 2014 number from the 2015 number. I assure you a 5th grader can subtract these numbers and compare them. The gain between JUNE 2015 over JUNE 2014 = 402.3 – 401.3 = +0.9 AQH Rating Point increase year over year (or statistically flat). Just 1 station, KLOU/ST. LOUIS, in theory, accounted for 66% of that gain with a 0.6 AQH Rating point increase (not their total AQH Rating) thanks to a format change by EMMIS, their direct competitor, across the street. And they had the biggest gain of any station in the NIELSEN JUNE 2015 48 PPM Markets. No station had a 0.5 AQH rRating increase. Only three stations had a 0.4 AQH Rating increase and all can be easily explained."
Read the full explaination here.