Talk Show Boot Camp 9 Looks At Talk Radio's Future

Today And Friday

DON ANTHONY and GABE HOBBS' TALK SHOW BOOT CAMP 9 gets underway TODAY (3/8) in DALLAS with a full slate of panels and presentations.  The two day event is being held at the JOULE hotel in downtown DALLAS.

Talk Radio's Report Card: Holding On

GABE HOBBS opened the day with his fourth annual "talk radio report card" deep-dive into the format's Adults 25-54 ratings among 44 of the 48 PPM markets (44 of the top 52 markets overall), showing that the overall numbers remain relatively flat -- the share was up from 2.5 in 2016 to 2.6 in 2017, up from 2014-15's bottom of 2.4. AQH persons also remained flat at 3,000 year-to-year, maintaining the election increase but still down 21% from 2011.  Cume fell 1.8% from 2016, but still above 2015's level (yet well below 2011's level), and time spent listening, HOBBS noted, is "up a bit."

Comparing commercial FM, commercial AM, and noncommercial talk stations, all three were up slightly in share.  However, noncommercial stations hit an all time high for AQH persons, ahead of both AM and FM commercial stations, which were slightly down.  The same was true for cume, with noncommercial stations up 9% after a 21% jump in 2016, while FM commercial stations fell off 6% and AM commercial stations were down 9.9%.  HOBBS noted large increases across the board for noncommercial News-Talk stations in the last two years, with noncommercial stations substantially closing the gap between themselves and commercial FMs in recent years.  And both AM and FM commercial stations are showing continuing decreases in cume, while noncommercial stations passed AMs in cume with the 2012 election and passed FMs with the 2016 election.

HOBBS' list of the biggest winners by percentage increase of AQH persons was topped by COX MEDIA GROUP Talk WHPT (102.5 THE BONE)/TAMPA and EMMIS News-Talk WIBC/INDIANAPOLIS both up 42%.  By pure number of AQH persons, noncommercial stations took the top four slots and eight of the top 10, topped by KQED/SAN FRANCISCO.  AMERICAN UNIVERSITY noncommercial WAMU/WASHINGTON topped the top 20 market share list; KQED topped the overall cume rankings, with iHEARTMEDIA News-Talk KFI-A/LOS ANGELES leading all commercial stations.

For all NIELSEN-measured News-Talk and Talk-Personality stations regardless of market (1.607 commercial, 437 noncommercial), commercial stations show a decidedly old lean, with 40.4% of listeners over 65, and 24.6% 55-64; noncommercial stations do better in 25-34 (11.1%) and 35-44 (13.6%) but also have a substantial older audience (31.7% 65+, 22.2% 55-64), indicating that while noncommercial stations skew a little younger, noncommercial stations also are facing an aging audience.  Commercial stations lean male (62.6%), with noncommercials more evenly split.

How bad is the AM band doing?  HOBBS noted that the percentage of PPM meters that never hear an AM station during an average week has ballooned from 70% in 2010 to over 80% in 2017; the percentage of total quarter hours devoted to AM listening has fallen from 10.8% to 6.7% in the same time frame.  He added that by the end of 2019, no Baby Boomers will be in the 25-54 demographic range; the Adult 25-54 demographic is not made up of 45% Millennials, 52% Gen-Xers, and the rest Baby Boomers, portending trouble for talk radio stations which have not found a way to appeal to the younger demographics.

Next, ENTERCOM News-Talk WINS-A/NEW YORK anchor LEE HARRIS hosted a panel on radio news with CUMULUS News-Talk WBAP-A and KLIF-A/DALLAS PD KEVIN GRAHAM (subbing for CUMULUS' BILL HESS) and WBAP host CHRIS KROK, SALEM News-Talk KSKY-A (660 AM THE ANSWER)/DALLAS host MARK DAVIS, and ATLANTA-based host BRYAN CRABTREE discussing how straight news coverage works with opinion-based talk programming.  DAVIS opined that news on radio is "going the way of the dinosaur."

Harvey Nagler Honored With Ashwood Award

Longtime CBS RADIO news executive HARVEY NAGLER was presented with the ANDREW ASHWOOD Award by last year's recipient, PREMIERE's JULIE TALBOTT, who called NAGLER a "journalist's journalist."  NAGLER's acceptance speech warned about the polarization of political discourse and the demonization of the "other side," telling News-Talkers that their role is not completely partisan but to provide context and talk about what others are not talking about. He also discussed the jailing of journalists overseas and the danger of denigrating the news media, which, he said, leads to "destroying democracy."  And he advised radio news organizations to build a digital strategy.

Glenn Beck Speaks

PREMIERE's GLENN BECK spoke of a bright future for talk radio if the platform is no longer an issue; he advised talkers to go to the platforms of the future, like social media or Internet-enabled devices, rather than stick around "a ghost town."  "My audience now has an audience," he said of the idea that everyone now has access to speak to the world via the Internet; however, he noted that nobody has to actually listen to any particular voice.  "We have a cacophony of everyone screaming at each other," BECK said of the present landscape.  And he voiced concern that talk radio, including himself ("I was too arrogant"), missed why President TRUMP got elected, focusing on issues and personality while TRUMP appealed to their listeners by addressing their pain and telling them he would fix their problems.

Tech Tips For Talkers

A special session on technology began with AMPLIFI MEDIA's STEVE GOLDSTEIN's presentation on smart speakers and smartphones taking over audio's future.  GOLDSTEIN noted that while it was thought that the adoption of smart speakers would bring radio back into the homes, and audio listening is what people are primarily using the devices for, the content being listened to is from streaming, like AMAZON's own music service.  The competition, GOLDSTEIN said, citing EDISON RESEARCH's studies, has led to AM/FM listening going down.  "These things are not radios," GOLDSTEIN said, "they are content machines."  Unique content, he said, is what will work on the smart speaker platform, as he demonstrated by showing how client BEASLEY Rock WMMR/PHILADELPHIA's most popular audio accessed via smart speakers is the PRESTON AND STEVE morning show's "Bizarre Files" segment.  And he gave extensive advice on the use of marketing to get listeners to enable AMAZON Alexa skills for shows and stations.  

GOLDSTEIN also devoted some time to podcasting, which he called "the democratization of content." "This is what people are looking for," he asserted, pointing to the diversity of choice and challenging talk radio to address the issue.  And he offered an overview of the surge of daily news podcasts led by THE NEW YORK TIMES' "THE DAILY."

NUVOODOO's CAROLYN GILBERT offered the results of a special study on podcasting, showing listening on the rise among 12-54s and increasing among talk radio P1s, with 37% of the latter spending more time with podcasts ("people are listening, they just may not be listening to us").  NPR P1s are even more into podcasts, with 52% saying they are spending more time with podcasts; GILBERT pointed to the network's use of its "megaphone" to promote podcasts.  Among those spending more time with podcasts, 25% are spending more time with talk radio while 25% are spending less ("we're not dead").  GILBERT also noted how people likely to agree to participate in ratings surveys are already invested in smart speakers, with nearly half already owning the devices.  Like GOLDSTEIN, she said that the devices are "an opportunity" but "not a gimme," requiring the right content to draw listeners.

On social media, GILBERT outlined talk radio P1s' heavy usage of social media (5 of 6 use Facebook daily, half use Twitter), how users can be producers ("you have a production studio in your pocket right now"), and top sources for news (Facebook and YouTube).  Regarding the perception of "fake news," radio news scored highly for trustworthiness among ratings participants across all political ideologies.

JACOBS MEDIA's FRED JACOBS brought a report on radio at this year's CONSUMER ELECTRONICS SHOW (CES) in LAS VEGAS, telling the audience to "stop taking notes" and just watch the presentation with photos from the exhibit hall and discussion of how the new technology will impact radio in the future, including the potential of 5G and "smart cities," voice control coming to the car, and the rise of electric autonomous cars necessitating a rethink of what content riders will want to see when relieved of their duty to drive the car.   After JACOBS' presentation, GOLDSTEIN, GILBERT, JACOBS, and iHEARTMEDIA's SVP of Podcasting CHRIS PETERSON assembled for a panel to discuss the topics raised by the three presentations.

Coming Up

Today's agenda also includes a session on the "next generation" of talk presented by RADIO AMERICA's DANA LOESCH and moderated by COX MEDIA GROUP News-Talk WDBO (NEWS 96.5)/ORLANDO's DREW ANDERSSEN; and a panel with CUMULUS' MIKE MCVAY moderating and SALEM's PHIL BOYCE, HEARST News-Talk WBAL-A/BALTIMORE's SCOTT MASTELLER, ENTERCOM/DALLAS' GAVIN SPITTLE, and ALL ACCESS' PERRY MICHAEL SIMON.

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