Is There A Big PPM Summer Drop-Off?
July 17, 2008 at 11:38 AM (PT)
Well, yes ... and no.
In the wake of YESTERDAY's announcement by ARBITRON that "all markets will exceed total sample benchmarks and the best 18-34 sample performance to date" during their monthly PPM conference call (NET NEWS 7/16), comes a response from consultant RANDY KABRICH, who said it's, "interesting that while ARBITRON and the trades herald 'the best data yet,' the numbers don't reflect that headline."
Well, do they, or don't they?
KABRICH points out that "PHILADELPHIA is suffering from the summer sample drop-off -- the same drop-off ARBITRON just told us on TODAY's PPM conference call they were placing more sample to insure didn't happen. In fact, the current JUNE drop-off in PHILADELPHIA is worse than it was last summer. From JUNE week 1 to JUNE week 4, PHILADELPHIA has lost 113 in-tab. Last year it lost 103 in-tab. So this year they have actually lost 10% more diaries to the SUMMER doldrums -- despite the extra panelists they say they've installed as insurance."
Based on four seperate weekly in-tabs, that's true, with JUNE 2008 week 1 at 1,815, week 2 at 1,730, week 3 at 1,722 and week 4 at 1,702.
Here's the fun part. Add those four figures up -- divide by the four weeks, and you get 1,742, which is the exact number ARBITRON cites as an increase over MAY 2008 ... and JUNE 2007.
Based on monthly numbers, pulled from "Average Daily In-tab," as pointed out by ARBITRON SVP/Press Relations THOM MOCARSKY, MAY to JUNE in-tab is, in fact, up in PHILLY. The monthly in-tab target was 1530. For MAY, it was 1667. For JUNE, 1742. In fact, comparing JUNE 2007 to JUNE 2008 shows an improvement from 1,411 a year ago, to 1,742 now.