Ryvicker: National And Local Ad Revs Up For Large Markets
Sees Smaller Markets About One Quarter Behind
March 18, 2010 at 4:14 AM (PT)
In a note to clients, WELLS FARGO analyst MARCI RYVICKER cited signs of recovery in local media markets. Evidence of that can be seen in price stabilization, early bookings and some improvement over last year in the automotive category; the Olympics and fall elections are expected to boost the comeback as well.
"Primary investor focus is still on 2010, but questions are starting to rise on 2011," wrote RYVICKER. "We are not writing off 2010 just yet -- we would hate to do that, especially for media that have not seen growth in five-plus years -- but we are starting to get questions on the revenue and expense trajectory of 2011 and beyond given that 2010 is going to be a significant year in terms of advertising growth."
"Pricing continues to firm into Q2," she continued. "We had a chance to talk to various local advertising contacts post-Q4 earnings to determine how much of the top-line strength is comp-driven versus demand. While no one would speak in terms of 'certainty,' most said it feels like half is comp-driven while the other half is demand. The most important data point that we picked up is that price continues to firm -- first in television, followed by radio and lastly outdoor (which we believe will be the last to turn positive but is not far behind -- likely Q2)."
Some in radio are reporting ad sales starting to pick up -- especially in large markets -- and RYVICKER confirms, writing "Our contacts tell us that large market radio is currently pacing up double-digits, with national the primary source of strength (although local is still up). We would anticipate that small-market radio is about a quarter behind large-market radio."