Gilford's Jim Boyle Sees A Strong 2011 Ahead For Radio Advertising
February 3, 2011 at 4:00 AM (PT)
GILFORD SECURITIES analyst JAMES BOYLE has some good news for radio in his FEBRUARY newsletter. In it, BOYLE writes the radio sector is up 9% in Q4 -- and that's better than expected.
"Our proprietary data for over 50 markets surprised us with a 12% yr./yr. increase in OCT., a 10% surge in NOV. as political waned, and a 4% in DEC. even as the very easy comps disappeared that month. This indicates Radio was up 9% in Q4E, whereas we had expected 7%. This suggests upside to ETM results."
BOYLE is high on 2011, forecasting better -than-expected growth. "DEC. being solidly positive with 4% yr./yr. growth despite the prior year’s flat DEC., so no easy comps' tailwind for the first time in 2010 -- bodes well for 2011E when the industry has no easy comps, which is why little is expected."
Auto advertising looks to continue its return to the airwaves, writes BOYLE, citing an AUTOBYTEL survey that shows 83% of people surveyed may buy a car in 2011. "If the foot traffic reflects AUTOBYTEL's level, car companies/dealers are likely to pour large amounts into '11E radio ads."