Overnight Briefing & General Reality Check - Oct 1, 2012
October 1, 2012
I'm a Poll Man:
The GOP has spent a lot of time lately decrying the bias driving polls that show PRESIDENT OBAMA opening up a lead over MITT ROMNEY, but NATE SILVER takes a look at how final polls have historically performed against results, and finds that while they have occasionally missed the mark, "polls have no such history of partisan bias."
The biggest miss was in 1980, when late polls showed RONALD REAGAN with a 2- or 3-point lead; he ended up trouncing JIMMY CARTER by 10 points. But that election, notes Silver, was made unusually volatile by a single, late-in-the-cycle debate that didn't have time to register in polling and the presence of a third-party candidate.
In the 10 elections since 1972, polls have "overestimated" Dems' edge five times, the GOP four times, and nailed Obama's margin of victory on the head. Accusations of partisanship, concludes Silver, are most likely "wishful thinking."
We know you're disappointed. Last Friday, Michigan officials said they found no preliminary sign of human remains of Teamsters boss Jimmy Hoffa in their latest investigation, but they're still awaiting more conclusive test results.
The authorities, who drilled through concrete and removed wet soil samples, said they could have the test results as early as today.
The search was organized after a tip from a man who said he witnessed a body being buried 35 years ago.
Hoffa was last seen in July 1975 near Detroit, where he was planning to meet with a New Jersey Teamsters boss and a Detroit mafia captain. (Maiman)
Out and about:
JOHNNY DEPP knows how draw a crowd in some of the biggest cities on earth, including (wait for it...) Lawton, Oklahoma! TMZ.com features video of the "Pirates" hottie riding in the back of a Camaro during a parade to honor the Comanche Nation Fair last Saturday. Word is his appearance was a big surprise for the locals --he was made an honorary member of the Comanche tribe last May. (Lee)
We now know what LADY GAGA'S butt would look like if it were a handbag. "Classic and boxy," says Fashionista.com. And "much tamer than expected." The bags debuts on the Mugler runway show in Paris this weekend. Gaga's B-F-F and personal stylist, NICOLA FORMICHETTI launched the label's first-ever leather handbag collection, which he said was inspired by Gaga's apparently-perfect-posterior. Refinery29.com says the 30-piece collection of day bags, clutches, and sport toteswill retail for around $900 to $15-hundred dollars.
Editor's note: And they will now and forevermore always be known as the Gaga Butt Bags. (Bartha)
Odds to Win "Dancing With The Stars: All Stars" (SportsInteraction.com):
--Emmitt Smith, 2/1 (favorite)
--Apolo Anton Ohno, 3/1
--Gilles Marini, 9/2
--Shawn Johnson, 6/1
--Helio Castroneves, 8/1
--Joey Fatone, 9/1
--Drew Lachey, Kirstie Alley and Kelly Monaco, all 16/1
--Bristol Palin, 25/1
--Sabrina Bryan, 28/1
--Pamela Anderson, 50/1
--Melissa Rycroft, 66/1 (longshot)
Health and Medical Briefs:
One Guinness World record wasn't enough for WALTER URBAN. Last year, the 54-year-old strongman broke the record for the most weight lifted squatting in one hour. This weekend he broke another record. Lifting 10-thousand-535 pounds in 60 seconds, he set a new record for the Heaviest Sumo Dead Lift in one minute.
According to a press release, Urban had to lift a 215-pound bar 49 times over the 60 seconds to break the previous record. Why bother? Urban says he wants to bring attention to the fact that adults can continue to remain healthy and get stronger well into their 50s and 60s. He stresses that steroids are not necessary to reach new heights in athletic performance. (Page)
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