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A Self-Fulfilling Prophecy?
March 30, 2007
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"For some genres and some artists, having an album-centric plan will be a thing of the past. [While the traditional album provides value to fans], perpetuating a business model that fixates on a particular packaged product configuration is inimical to what the Internet enables, and it's inimical to what many consumers have clearly voted for."
-- Jeff Kempler, chief operating officer of EMI's Capitol Music Group, as quoted in the New York Times article 'The Album, a Commodity in Disfavor" (See link to article below).Last week in the newsletter I pointed out despite the downturn in physical CD sales, there were albums in the Top 20 of the album charts that accounted for over 21 million sales, and many were multi-platinum. I also suggested that maybe the reason these albums had sold such quantities is that they provided more value to the consumer.
Needless to say then, I was quite surprised to read the above comment from Mr. Kempler in the New York Times this week. He admits the album provides value to fans, but then says it's a packaged product configuration "inimical to what the Internet enables and what many consumers have clearly voted for"? Huh?
Maybe Mr. Kempler never heard of "garbage in equals garbage out." Or maybe he hasn't seen the 5 million certifications for Carrie Underwood (close now to 6 million) and Nickelback; the 3 million certification for Justin Timberlake; the 2 million for Chris Daughtry (closing in on 3 million); 2 million for The Red Hot Chili Peppers, Beyonce, and more.
You see Mr. Kempler, it's NOT that consumers have clearly voted for buying tracks/singles over albums because they like buying tracks more, it's because the great majority of albums released are NOT worth spending $10 or more on when they only have one or two good songs on them. You keep putting out such "product," and you'll continue to lose album sales.
As I also mentioned in my commentary last week, signing artists who could provide labels with long-term roster health was once a fundamental foundation for almost all labels. Is it today? If so, I ask you again to take out paper and pencil and write down the names of all the current artists you think will still be selling respectable quantities five years from now, 10 years from now, or beyond. It's going to be an incredibly short list.
It's amazing that at this late date in time, anybody in the music industry would think that focusing more on album sales instead of disposable junk-food for the ears would be adverse thinking in the current state of affairs. The term self-fulfilling prophecy means that you will get pretty much what you expect. If you regularly forecast gloom, you will probably get it in one form or another. Bad thinking anyway you cut it.
In 1965, Bob Dylan cut a six-minute single called "Like A Rolling Stone" that many people said would never be successful on Top 40 radio. I would guess that some back then might have thought the record was "inimical to what many consumers have clearly voted for" because Top 40 was playing three-minute songs and getting big ratings. So clearly then, the program directors could have come to the conclusion that their audience "clearly voted" for what they were giving them. "Like A Rolling Stone' rocketed to #2 on the Billboard Hot 100 Singles Chart and stayed on the chart for three months.
The Beatles released "Rubber Soul" in 1965 and made the decision that there would be no single released from the album for radio or retail, much to Capitol's dismay originally. Put out an album without a single as a promotional tool to promote it at radio? The Beatles ruled at retail and requests, so radio had to respond. Radio programmers simply put "Michelle" on their stations, along with "I'm Looking Through You," and about four other tracks from the album. Of course "Rubber Soul" wasn't the only album they released without a single for radio/retail. "Sgt. Pepper" didn't have a single and neither did the "The White Album."
Of course, the release of "Sgt. Pepper" (and subsequent concept albums by the Stones, Who, etc.) gave birth to the notion that the radio audience might want to hear more than just singles, and a great radio man named Tom Donahue eventually put an FM station on the dial in San Francisco, KSAN, and "progressive radio" (the forerunner of all album radio that followed) was born.
Different times, Mr. Kempler, and others thinking like him, will argue. Different times or not, all these events helped rock and shape the music industry forever. They were created by people who took risks, who were committed in their beliefs that the public would buy listen to and buy great albums in great quantities if they were exposed to them.
I don't believe the public is at all satisfied with the bulk of the current state of music being served to them on the radio and MTV. That's why so much of the music has become, like fashion accessories, disposable. That's why so much of the music (and calling a big portion of what's out there "music" is a stretch as well) is sold for ringtones and discarded monthly.
I think every album that sells multi-platinum in this difficult time for the industry defies Mr. Kempler's statement.
But if Mr. Kempler and people who might think like him actually believe the consumers have spoken, then they will expedite the loss of the album as a significant retail item and as a vehicle to deliver great music -- a vehicle that was once the standard-bearer for every label and all artists who wanted to create more than just a hit single.
Sprint To Cut Mobile Phone Song Price To 99 Cents
ORLANDO, Fla--Sprint Nextel plans to cut its digital music download fee to 99 cents per song, matching prices at iTunes, the leading Internet music service run by Apple.
Sprint, which announced the move Monday, a day ahead of the CTIA wireless conference here, is the first of the top three mobile phone service providers to offer this price, which will go into effect in early April. It currently charges $2.49 per song.
The price cut is an about-face for Sprint, which has long maintained that consumers are willing to pay a premium to buy songs on the go. It has sold 15 million wireless song downloads since it launched its music service in late 2005.
Read more about it by clicking here.
Traditional Media On Thin Ice
Traditional media is under assault from its consumers. They don't want to pay for content, they're going to different sources (including blogs) to find information, they're leaving television for online video, and their behavior is throwing the future economics of media into question.
Here are some examples: Time Warner's 2006 ad revenue fell 23.8% from 2000 according to the Publishers Information Bureau. The New York Times Company's stock trades at $25--half its 2002 share price. And the music industry's business model is completely caving in: CD sales fell 20% in the first three quarters of the year, while illegal file sharing is estimated at 1 billion, according to the research group BigChampagne.
Media companies are certainly responding to these changes--but there's still no proof that they've figured it out. Each week it seems, a new startup or technology comes to the fore, placing big media further behind the curve. Meanwhile, most of their new media purchases have yet to bare fruit.
Read more about it by clicking here.
EA Presses Play On Music Label
Electronic Arts will team with Nettwerk One Music to form a full-service music label, the game publisher announced Monday. Dubbed Artwerk, the label will sign and develop new and established artists for publishing, master recording and sync deals, as well as digital and physical distribution of musical works in movies, TV shows and video games.
Read more about it by clicking here.
EU Official Downplays iPod Competition Worries
A top European Commission official raised questions on Tuesday about whether competition authorities needed to regulate Apple's iPod music players.
Some critics have called for measures to force Apple to make the music it sells on its online iTunes music store compatible with MP3 music players other than its own iPods.
"Before we jump in to regulate competition on the market it is worth asking whether competition is actually harmed," the Commission's director general for competition, Philip Lowe, said at an antitrust conference in Munich, Germany.
Read more about it by clicking here.
Hackers, Designers Talk Tech's Future At ETech
Technology is so embedded in many people's lives that it can be hard to step back and recognize the small shifts in the world brought about by adoption of new applications or gadgets.
But that's what organizers of the O'Reilly ETech conference hope to examine this week at the sixth annual gathering on emerging technology. The confab, which is held for four days in San Diego, draws just more than 1,000 technologists, including game designers, hackers and Web executives. Speakers this year include Apple designer Ron Brinkmann, Google's map software engineer Barry Brumitt, and Palm founder Jeff Hawkins, who will talk about his newest venture in artificially intelligent computing.
Read more about it by clicking here.
The Album, a Commodity in Disfavor
A great article by the New York Times' Jeff Leeds on how labels are coming to grips with the loss of the album as their main product and chief moneymaker.
Read more about it by clicking here.
EMI'S Nicoli Says: Mobile Industry Could Learn From Apple
ORLANDO, Fla.--The wireless industry needs to borrow a page from Apple's playbook if it expects to exploit the huge potential in mobile music, EMI Group's chief executive said on Wednesday.
In 2007 the mobile music market is projected to generate $13 billion, and it is expected to grow to $32 billion in revenue by 2010. But in a keynote address at the CTIA Wireless trade show, EMI's Eric Nicoli warned the industry that it would not reach its potential if mobile operators, handset makers and content providers don't work together and put the customer first. He said they need to make sure that every product they develop for consumers is one that people want, is easy to use, and provides value at an affordable price.
Nicoli pointed specifically to the iPhone, Apple's music-playing phone set to debut in the U.S. on AT&T's wireless network in June. Announced in January, the iPhone has created a stir and buzz not achieved by any other handset maker in the industry. And the company isn't even showing off the device at the CTIA trade show. During a keynote on Tuesday, Randall Stephenson, AT&T's COO, said the company had heard from more than 1 million customers who wanted more information about the phone.
Read more about it by clicking here.
Review Roundup: The Best Portable Media Devices
Now that the days of digital music downloads have become the days of digital video downloads, your standard MP3 player just isn't going to cut it anymore. To take your favorite TV shows and movies along with you, you need a Portable Media Player (PMP). PMPs come in all shapes and sizes, from the popular Apple iPod video to Wi-Fi-enabled media machines, so here are four of PCMag's favorites to help you along.
Read more about it by clicking here.
BMI Projects Downturn in 2007 Ringtone Sales
Ringbacks To Generate $65 Million in Retail RevenuesBMI has released its annual projection for U.S. ringtone sales and for the first time released a U.S. ringback tone market projection for 2007, estimating that the 2007 music ringtone market will dip to $550 million in retail sales, down $50 million from calendar year 2006. BMI pegged the market at $600 million in calendar year 2006, $500 million in 2005, $245 million in 2004 and $68 million in 2003.
BMI projects that ringbacks will generate approximately $65 million in retail content revenues in 2007, the company's first market estimate of the long-awaited rollout of the ringback tone market. A ringback tone is a musical work that is performed to the caller when they place a call to a participating mobile subscriber.
Read more about it by clicking here.
Every Movie In 3D?
Three-dimensional film technology can transform the movie business, with viewers willing to pay a premium for it, two top movie industry executives said Wednesday. Michael Campbell, CEO of Regal Entertainment Group, said box office results from the handful of 3D films released so far have convinced him of the "potential advantages for theaters, not just studios" in switching to digital projection systems that support modern 3D technology.
Campbell told analysts at a Bank of America conference that audiences are willing to pay premium ticket prices for 3D films, preferring them by a 2-to-1 margin.
Read more about it by clicking here.
THIS WEEK'S 'WHO CARES?' NEWS ITEMS
ITEM #1: Though nobody is talking about it, and the TV show was a obviously a huge disappointment, whatever viewers there were chose Max Crumm (yup, that's his real name) and Laura Osnes to play Danny Zuko and Sandy Dumbrowski in the upcoming Broadway revival of "Grease" during Sunday's finale of "Grease: You're the One That I Want." The Broadway revival starts this summer. How long it will last, is anyone's guess.
CONGRATS
CONGRATS #1 TO: To the Bee Gees, who will receive the Icon Award at BMI's 55th Annual Pop Music Awards on May 15.
CONGRATS #2 TO: To Bono, who was crowned a Knight Commander of the Most Excellent Order of the British Empire Thursday in an informal ceremony.
ARETHA'S 'IDOLS'
American Idol's Jennifer Hudson and Fantasia Barrino are among the singer-actors Aretha Franklin has said she would like to consider possibly portraying her in an upcoming musical feature film based on her autobiography, "From These Roots."
ALL FOR A GOOD CAUSE
U2's The Edge is donating his favorite guitar, a 1975 Gibson Les Paul worth anywhere from $60,000 to $80,000, to be sold through the Icons of Music Auction on April 21. Proceeds will benefit the Music Rising charity, which provides aid to musicians impacted by the Gulf Coast hurricanes. Other items being auctioned include a seven-page love letter from Janis Joplin to her boyfriend, a pair of sunglasses belonging to John Lennon, and an MTV Video Music Award won by Kurt Cobain.
THE PIRATES HATE THESE DOGS
Malaysian movie pirates are now spraying chemicals on their bootlegged discs in an effort to throw DVD-sniffing dogs Lucky and Flo off the scent, officials said Monday. The black Labradors, on loan to the southeast Asian nation from the Motion Picture Association of America, successfully sniffed out almost $3 million of illegal discs in a raid earlier this month and subsequently had a bounty placed on their heads by angry pirates.
IT MUST'VE BEEN A GREAT FIGHT
Website TMZ.com is reporting that a Burbank hotel is reportedly pressing charges against Velvet Revolver frontman Scott Weiland and his wife, Mary, after the twosome allegedly trashed their hotel room during a violent argument over the weekend.
CMT PICKS PICKLER
"American Idol" contestant from last season and Country recording artist Kellie Pickler is hosting the 2007 CMT Music Awards Video of the Year Special on April 9, giving fans a closer look at the eight videos vying for Video of the Year at the CMT Music Awards on April 16.
MAYBE SHE GOT TIRED OF HEARING HIM SING 'YOU'RE BEAUTIFUL' OVER AND OVER
Supermodel Petra Nemcova and James Blunt have ended their relationship after a year.
THIS TIME IT'S FOR REAL
MTV announced that "Punk'd" is officially over -- and this time, they mean it. Ashton Kutcher previously pretended to pull the plug on the show in December 2003, but back it came in April 2004. The upcoming eighth season features pranks pulled on Hilary Swank, Magic Johnson and Evangeline Lilly.
IF YOU KNOW THE ONION, YOU KNOW THIS WILL BE GREAT
The Onion is launching a 24-hour fake-news network dubbed ONN -- Onion News Network -- with the tagline "faster, harder, scarier and all-knowing." Segments from the new venture will be available on theonion.com starting Tuesday.
DRIVING UNDER THE WEED
Black Eyed Peas member Taboo (aka Jaime Luis Gomez) was arrested on suspicion of driving under the influence and possession of marijuana after colliding with another vehicle in Los Angeles Tuesday morning, police said.
DIVORCE COURT
Wynonna Judd filed for divorce from her estranged husband, D.R. Roach, citing irreconcilable differences.
SEGER 'TURNING THE PAGE'?
Billboard.com is reporting that Bob Seger is possibly looking to ankle Capitol Records by year's end. (Starbucks, are you listening?) Stay tuned.
AN HOUR FOR THE RESULTS? WHY? WE ALREADY KNOW MELINDA IS GOING TO WIN
"American Idol" is expanding its Wednesday-night results show to an hour for three episodes, beginning April 11.
PUMPKIN SEEDS
The Smashing Pumpkins are playing their first live show in six and a half years in Paris on May 22, the band announced Wednesday. The Pumpkins will then continue their trek with dates across Europe in the summer, before continuing on to North America in the fall.
2006 Industry Conferences
Date Name Location 2007 ASCAP "I Create Music" Expo April 18-21 Los Angeles, CA MUSEXPO 2007 April 27 - May 2 Los Angeles, CA
Quotes of the week
"If it just comes flying off, it'll be entertaining."
-- Paul McCartney's ex, Heather Mills, talking to Ryan Seacrest Monday on KIIS-FM in Los Angeles about her artificial leg possibly falling off on "Dancing with the Stars.""I can't control my drugs and gang-banging past. People can see that I now have a different identity and that I've changed my lifestyle around completely. We let the Beatles in the USA, so please let me in here."
-- Snoop Dogg, after he was denied entry to the UK to play a concert, to MTV UK."ABC announced this week that it has renewed "Lost" for a fourth season. Said the show's writers, 'Oh, crap.'"
-- Amy Poehler, on "Saturday Night Live"'s Weekend Update"There's no way you can't learn a lot in a program like that, and it's good. I recommend it for anyone who needs it."
-- Lindsay Lohan to People, on her recent rehab stint at Los Angeles' posh Wonderland Center. Recommend it to Britney Spears if she has a relapse."Bill Clinton was a surprise guest at Elton John's 60th birthday party this past weekend at Madison Square Garden. There was one embarrassing moment -- when he saw Elton John from the behind he said 'Hillary'"?"
-- Jay Leno
The B-Side - 'Blips'
THE ONION (www.theonion.com) STORY OF THE WEEK:
New Disney Ride Simulates Disney-ABC Merger
ORLANDO, FL-Visitors to the Walt Disney World theme park stood in line for hours Monday waiting to get on the Whirly Merge, a new thrill ride that promises all the excitement of the 1996 merger between the Walt Disney Company and Capital Cities/ABC, Disney officials said Wednesday.
"This ride has been 12 years in the making," Disney CEO Bob Iger said. "Now you can experience for yourself the heart-stopping suspense when [former Disney chief] Michael Eisner tries to convince the board of directors to diversify its holdings and become the world's largest entertainment conglomerate."
Described in a Disney press release as "It's A Small World and Space Mountain meets Barbarians At The Gate," the Whirly Merge transports its riders, who are strapped in plush leather chairs to "boardroom tables," through a series of fast-paced and intricate business meetings, all leading to the climactic acquisition stage.
Read the rest and laugh here: http://tinyurl.com/yqhhu9.
The Blogs
Check out a great (that I contribute commentary to) blog by Jerry Del Colliano, the Director Executive Programs, Clinical Professor Music Industry & Recording Arts, at the Thornton School of Music,University of Southern California, by clicking here: http://www.insidemusicmedia.blogspot.com.
Box Office
Check The Daily & Weekly Box Office (and more film info) at: www.boxofficemojo.com.
TinyURL
Check out www.tinyurl.com where you can make a smaller URL that will work for any webpage you wish to link to or reference. (As you can see, I'm using it in my news stories above!)
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