Chance of Hearing a Song

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Chance of Hearing a Song

Post by rogerwimmer » Mon Jul 30, 2012 6:14 am

Doc: Greetings from the Pacific Time Zone. Is there a way to estimate my average listener's chances of hearing certain songs on my playlist? For instance, if I play a song 50 times per week, what is the chance my average listener will hear this song on any given day? What about over the course of a week? Also, same question, but for my P1's. I'd like to base the spins each of my categories gets partially on the odds of my audience's exposure to each.

I am assuming there must be some kind of equation that can help. I know what my weekly cume is, my AWTE (Average Weekly Time Exposed, aka TSL), etc. And if it matters, I am not referring to OES. I am familiar with that formula but I don't think it exactly answers what I am looking for.

Thanks for helping if you can. - Anonymous

Anon: Greeting to you too and on to your question . . .

Although you said that OES (Optimum Effective Scheduling) is not your answer, I think it is. What I would like you to do is read two articles and see if that clears it up for you. If not, write again and I’ll see what I can do.

First, read this answer on the Research Doctor Archive – scroll down to the question titled, “Music Rotation - The Art & Science of Spins,” near the bottom of the page.

Then, read this short article by Mike McVay – click here.

Do those articles answer your question? If you consider a song the same as a commercial spot, you can see that the approaches to determine exposure are the same.

(Want to comment on this question? Click on the POSTREPLY button under the question.)
Roger Wimmer is owner of Wimmer Research and senior author of Mass Media Research: An Introduction, 10th Edition.

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