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Happy "New Year’s Day!"
November 16, 2017
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"The problem with quotes on the internet is that it's hard to verify their authenticity."
Those astute words, courtesy of perhaps the wisest sage in American history – and our 16th President – Abraham Lincoln.
I saw THAT online, so it must be true!
See the hitch here?
So, after Country radio was serviced a Taylor Swift song last night (11/15) – the stark, stripped-down "New Year’s Day," off her just-released, already blockbuster "Reputation" album – a number of people took to social media and ran wild, proclaiming, "Taylor Swift is making her return to Country radio!"
Whoa! Somebody slow this thing down!
Any idea of a "return to Country" for Swift runs counter-intuitive to everything I've seen from her label and team over the years, and that is: staying "on brand." Releasing a ginormous Pop album, which – sonically – is further away from Country than anything she's ever done… even "1989," her definitive shift to Pop in 2014… would be completely inconsistent with some concurrent, alternate strategy of working one song to Country while the rest of the project is marketed Pop.
Not gonna happen.
It's all fascinating to watch, because whenever Swift brings new music, the whole wide world pays attention, and a ton of people go out and buy it. Sales estimates for "Reputation" are pacing towards Swift's typical astronomical range, evidenced by the headline in a Forbes magazine piece earlier this week declaring, "Taylor Swift's new album sold more copies in its first day than any album has in a week this year."
That's beyond a Pop music event, ladies and gentlemen. Those numbers represent a Pop CULTURE event.
Some Country PDs decided to jump on board and participate. Why the hell not? From what I've heard of "Reputation," the only viable candidate for a Country radio fit is "New Year’s Day." My sources tell me there was a listening event for Pop PDs several weeks ago, which may or may not have taken place at Swift's home here in Nashville. In this case, my sources are all my social media accounts, which started blowing up with photo-ops of Swift and radio peeps hugging, smiling, and bonding. I guess the embargo for posting those on socials was lifted as of this week.
Some programmers, who have multiple format responsibilities, obviously took a shine to "New Year’s Day" and even asked Swift if they could play it at Country.
What's she gonna say? "Nah, I'd rather you didn't play my music and expose it to your massive cume, but thanks for asking! K-bye." Um, nah, not so much.
In addition, "New Year’s Day" received national exposure Monday night (11/13) when Swift made a pop-up appearance on NBC-TV's "The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon." Fallon was returning to the air after a week off to mourn his mother's passing. Shortly after a touching and tearful tribute to his mom, Swift appeared at the piano and sang "New Year’s Day." As Fallon began his outro to the segment, he and Swift shared a long, strong, and heartfelt embrace. It was a beautiful moment, and the clip went viral Tuesday morning, giving what was previously an album cut phenomenal, multi-platform exposure.
Who wouldn't jump on that band wagon, if only for a day or so?
WUSN/Chicago added "New Year’s Day" the day "Reputation" was released (11/10) and has 22 spins to date (11/16). Inside of one week, with so few spins, it's impossible to gauge how listeners are reacting. Following last night's send to Country radio, I reached out to a handful of PDs in various market sizes and asked if this song would be considered. None wanted to be quoted.
"We played it as a feature in AM Drive," one PD told me. "I don't do that very often but felt like this is an event we can get our listeners involved with. Responses were lukewarm and mixed. Less than 50% were positive. None were nasty. Kind of apathetic, overall." This same PD went on to explain that Swift's music had always been polarizing, something many Country PDs can vouch for while Swift's focus was Country radio. As her star quickly rose, and she became ubiquitous, some fatigue came along with her international notoriety, actually preceding the music. Right or wrong, such is the double-edged sword that comes with massive success.
"I don't mind playing polarizing artists," this PD continued. "Those types show huge passion on either side. In the end, the research was never good enough to justify keeping her on our station. The negatives have been too strong to play any of her gold. My analysis after digesting it all is that nothing has changed. For some reason our audience has moved on ... I love her. Think she's a superstar and does everything right. Her work ethic, personality, and music are all what you want in a superstar."
Another PD, referencing the Fallon appearance, said, "It was an emotional moment, one of those things you feel fortunate to have witnessed. I think maybe a few feature spins are appropriate, because it was a big pop culture moment. The song was not something I immediately thought of for airplay. I think it comes down to 'fit.' There are stations where the song may make more sense."
And, a consultant friend of mine shared this perspective: "Typical lyric heavy Taylor; it’s her strength. Still doesn’t sound Country, even though there’s no drum machine. She had trouble when she was still considered a Country artist, if you believe test scores. I don’t hear anything that will make the life group overlook her history."
KNIX/Phoenix MD Lois Lewis told me the station will play "New years day" in some capacity, reasoning, "It's an EVENT record. She's Taylor Swift. She's grown up with us, and we've grown up with her. I'm a 38-year-old female, P1 Country, but I cannot stop listening to #reputation." Lewis told me she played the song during her "Double-L's Discovery Of The Day" feature and got four calls, three of them positive. "The fourth guy said I wouldn't hurt his feelings if I never played that again, but proceeded to ask me to play Dolly Parton & Kenny Rogers. So, grain of salt." Citing the immense sales figures, Lewis added, "I feel like it's a miss if you don't at least recognize that it's there. Tease it. Set the appointment. Make it an occasion. Pay it off. And move right along about your day."
Similarly, WIL/St. Louis MD Danny Montana said, "Receiving a new song from Taylor feels like an early Christmas gift. It was great to have her presence back on the air with 'Better Man' from Little Big Town, but to actually have new music from Taylor is fantastic. This song will be going into rotation."
It's important to note that Swift's label, Big Machine, has realistic expectations about all this. They're not even working the record. Rather, they wanted to give Country radio an opportunity to be part of a potentially history-making week in music. I don't know this for certain, but consider: why would the Big Machine radio promo team start to pivot hard on a Taylor Swift single at Country radio when "Reputation" is a guaranteed blockbuster? They just had a terrific event at Country taking Carly Pearce's debut single, "Every Little Thing," to #1 with a stellar follow-up, "Hide the Wine," coming shortly. Remember my earlier point about drifting "off brand?" How often does that happen at the Big Machine? How about never. Does never sound somewhat accurate?
That said, it's early – less than 24 hours since Country radio got this tune. As of late Thursday (11/16) afternoon, Mediabase Real Time showed "New Year’s Day" sitting at #66 with 14 spins for the day.
Here's what I find kind of ironic about the small total spin count for Swift so far. On last week's nationally televised CMA Awards, P!nk is granted a full performance slot for her new Pop single, but Taylor Swift – who WON a CMA Song Of The Year award that same night and is a past, multiple CMA Award winner, including an Entertainer of the Year trophy – sends music to Country radio this week to soft reaction. Three years after her deliberate move away from this format, I'd argue that "New Year’s Day" is every bit as compatible with many other songs playing on Country radio right now. I think everyone knows how I feel about this. If still in radio, I'd play the piss out of "New Year’s Day" until listeners told me to do otherwise. Because: Pop Culture event and Swift's format history.
At least, that's what I read on the internet, anyway.
Editors Note: This article was adjusted at 8:45a (CT) to include the comments of Lois Lewis, and Danny Montana.