Analysts' Studies Show Sept. Inventories Flat or Up From August

LEE WESTERFIELD's latest report on radio spot loads for HARRIS NESBITT noted that overall daily radio inventories in SEPTEMBER remained at about 10.6 minutes for the second straight month, but that figure is down 10.1% from SEPTEMBER 2004. He says that CLEAR CHANNEL, the leader of the "Less is More" initiative, has not shown appreciable growth in the sale of 30 second spots, which represent about 13-15% of the company's overall sales and have been at that level since FEBRUARY, but that ENTERCOM seems to be showing some success in getting clients to pay about 70-75% of the :60 rate for 30 second spots. CLEAR CHANNEL's year-to-year inventory reduction was reduced 25.7%, trailed by ABC (7.6%), RADIO ONE (7.4%), INFINITY (4.6%), and SUSQUEHANNA (3.4%). WESTERFIELD's report showed morning drive inventory down 9.5% year-to-year, with afternoons down 10.6%; HOUSTON was the major market with the largest inventory reduction year-to-year (20.3%).

Meanwhile, WACHOVIA SECURITIES' MARCI RYVICKER's study of morning and afternoon drive inventories in the top 12 revenue markets showed spot loads up 0.3 minutes per hour in drive time between AUGUST and SEPTEMBER 2005. RYVICKER says that the increase in inventory does not bode well for rate increases, but projects a 2% revenue increase for SEPTEMBER.

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