CRS In Action: 'Dicing The Data To Predict The Hits'

(l-r): Tim Richards, Green, Zarling, Bob Richards

A survey of the MEDIABASE Country reporting panel PDs/MDs polling 38 different factors used when considering airplay showed artist reputation/stature, gut feeling, and playlist fit topping the list, according to STONE DOOR MEDIA LAB’s JEFF GREEN. He led off today’s “Dicing The Data To Predict The Hits” panel at COUNTRY RADIO SEMINAR (CRS), and went on to share that streaming data from SPOTIFY, YOUTUBE, APPLE and PANDORA were at or near the bottom of the list.

Rather than a strong reliance on intangibles, GREEN suggested using five key data points:

• Watching SHAZAM per-spin ratios early in a song’s life.
• Using “Most-Added” as in indicator. 55% of most-added songs go on to reach #1, 82% reach top 15. Songs that are top-10 most added for five straight weeks are also proven hits.
• Achieving MEDIABASE “Airborne” status. The average peak of such songs is #12.
• Monitor big early sales-per-spin stats. 70% of songs with 12 or more sales per spin early on reached #12; the average peak was #6.
• Watch PANDORA streaming data. GREEN says in most cases, PANDORA leads MEDIABASE in predicting top 10 records.

Among examples for recent hit songs showing strong results in all five categories included MAREN MORRIS’ “My Church,” JON PARDI “Dirt On My Boots,” and DAN+ SHAY, “From The Ground Up.”

Also on the panel: SONY NASHVILLE EVP/Marketing and New Business JOHN ZARLING, who said he and his team watch PANDORA and SPOTIFY, specifically market level data; YOUTUBE views, and the sales consumption charts. ZARLING also shared how early on in TAYOR SWIFT’s career, while he was at BIG MACHINE RECORDS, MYSPACE showed how consumers were embracing SWIFT. ZARLING said it was all very similar to what he and other label marketing teams do today, adding “Radio did not see those sources as competition; it’s information that helps in decision-making.”

CBS RADIO/PHOENIX VP/Programming and Country KMLE PD TIM RICHARDS listed SHAZAM, SPOTIFY, video views, and, at a certain point, MSCORES on songs to help his music decision-making. And he also does not view streaming platforms as a competitor. Asked by moderator BOB RICHARDS about radio often defaulting to skepticism when entering a music conversation, TIM RICHARDS says he tries not to be cynical, but has to keep in mind the station and company goals (i.e. Ratings and revenue), and emphasized how important the label partners are as providers of great music.

« see more Net News