CRS In Action: The Metrics That Matter

Country Radio Seminar

How do you predict what songs will be hits early on? That is, of course, one of the million-dollar music business questions. But as STONE DOOR MEDIA LAB Co-founder JEFF GREEN reminded attendees at COUNTRY RADIO SEMINAR panel on THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 14th, there are a variety of metrics radio can use to indicate a song’s ultimate hit potential. They include: most added rank, a big add week, consecutive weeks most added, chart position at five weeks, PANDORA “thumbs up” ratios, streams per spin, and SHAZAM's per spin.

In the session, titled “The Metrics That Matter To Predict Radio Hits,” GREEN spoke at length about the correlation between streams and airplay. A higher “streams per spin” indicates positive potential, noted GREEN, and singles that generate more streams per spin early in their chart life ultimately peak higher and are more likely to reach #1. “The more you play a single, the more streams it generates,” he said, but cautioned, “Don’t assume a streaming spike without airplay isn’t legit.” GREEN encouraged radio attendees to get songs per spin data from their label reps. “Ask for it by name,” he joked.

His data about the correlation between PANDORA and radio airplay was also revealing. Turns out, “PANDORA and Country radio agree on Top 10s 82% of the time.” Meanwhile, 10% of radio Top 10s do not reach that position on PANDORA, and 9% of PANDORA Top 10 hits do not attain that position at radio. He also noted that PANDORA is a good early predictor because it is, on average, seven weeks ahead of terrestrial radio for songs reaching the Top 10 on the service.

GREEN also spoke about SHAZAM, pointing out that access to data for most songs is free on the songs page of the SHAZAM website. Songs that are ranked in the Top 5 on the MEDIABASE Country airplay chart typically average about 16,070 SHAZAMS per week.

The full deck of GREEN’s presentation is available here.

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