Ryvicker Sees 'Muted Recovery' With Radio Doing OK

Marci Ryvicker

WELLS FARGO analyst MARCI RYVICKER provides a bit of good news for radio, as she says the media industry is experiencing a "muted" ad recovery. "We have spoken with several private and public local media groups -- outdoor, radio and television -- as well as various media buyers. Most have confirmed that SEPTEMBER is showing some incremental improvement, but the overall tone remains cautious. Radio is experiencing the greatest sequential improvement, followed by television -- networks more than stations -- and lastly outdoor."

September is showing some incremental improvement but the overall tone remains cautious. Radio is experiencing the greatest sequential improvement.

Radio is doing better than TV and outdoor at the moment, said RYVICKER. "Pricing in television has not recovered, and pacings are skewed by the difficult political comps from last year’s presidential election. While most groups sounded relatively optimistic about Q4 given what they are hearing from their general managers, these trends have not yet materialized in the pacing data. It sounds like the focus will soon be 2010, with significant political, SUPER BOWL and OLYMPIC revenue."

Last month's "Cash for Clunkers" was "incremental but not necessarily material," added RYVICKER. "The media impact from Cash for Clunkers has been mixed, with a more material impact in large markets versus small markets. The majority of our contacts claimed that auto advertisers have been mostly repeat advertisers who just changed ad copy rather than spent incremental dollars, although there were notable exceptions based on specific market activity."

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