Robert Neil

Robert "Bob" Neil is another radio executive who rose through the ranks. After honing his programming skills as PD at WYYY-A/F/Syracuse in 1983, he was promoted to OM before he segued to an identical post at WYAY/Gainesville, GA. He first joined Cox in 1986 as VP/GM of WSB-A/F/Atlanta. As CEO of Cox Radio -- and now also EVP of the Media Group -- Neil has his finger on the pulse of a bevy of issues facing radio, and has been an outspoken critic of the PPM rollout before it achieved full MRC accreditation. Here are his views on the current radio environment and Cox's place in it.

Obviously, 2009 has been a tough year. How long do you feel the slump will last?

I don't think anyone has the crystal ball on the economy. Given the uncertainty in the automotive sector in the short term, and employment remaining sluggish, I think everyone would hope we would start to see some improvement in the Fall into next year.

What will be instrumental in the turnaround - improvement of the overall economy? More emphasis on non-on-air revenue? HD radio growth? Online development?

Look, at the end of the day, the overall economy is the biggest factor in advertising spending. When we see our biggest category (automotive) have two of the three domestic auto companies go bankrupt, that is going to hurt. It hurt all media, not just radio. Until businesses feel better about the overall economy, they will not make plans to aggressively grow their business. It doesn't help that the government wants to tax small businesses at a higher rate, and talks about surcharge additional taxes for health care. We think that local advertisers will continue to be more important than ever. They care the most about results, and we know radio delivers that.

How much of the future of radio's revenue renaissance be found online? How will its presence impact the way Cox and its terrestrial stations do business?

We were the first radio company to stream all of our stations, so we obviously believe that the digital future is important. We think our online assets build stronger relationships with our listeners, and allow them to consume radio anyway they choose -- on-air or online. In addition, they provide valuable and unique solutions for our advertisers.

What's your opinion of HD Radio? Considering how much staff downsizing there has been in radio, how can stations even afford to hire the programmers to take the time and energy to develop compelling content on HD?

I often say it's a digital world, so we need to broadcast in digital. That's the quality consumers have come to expect. As for the secondary HD signals, it is going to be a very long time before there are enough receivers in consumers hands. That means that programming HD-2 and HD-3 signals is just an expense, as there is no revenue associated with it because there are so few listeners. At one time, FM was in the same boat, and we know how that turned out, so we have to give it time. It's a fun lab right now to just "put on a show."

Some radio executives believe that HD won't profit from spinning out niche music formats, but they can profit from selling sub-channels to ethnic parties, infomercial advertisers, news and traffic channels and other more hard data programming. What's your take?

We know that the data capabilities have possibilities, because there are already some revenue streams developing there. We're in the start-up phase, so I don't think anyone really "knows" how the additional sub-channels will shake out. The mindset has to be: experiment.

Cox has done quite well by bringing back Bubba The Love Sponge to a couple Florida stations, What's the lesson here -- that controversy can still sell (with enough of a delay)? That star power still wins out?

The Bubba of today is different from the act that got fined. He is controversial, but so is Rush. Bubba is a lot deeper in what he does and talks about now. Sure, he still has strippers in the studio, but he also talks a lot more about issues, and in Tampa he's been #1 with 25-54 women in a recent book, so I think his act and appeal is broader now. He's married; he has kids. That changes your life. Most of all ... he's funny and entertaining.

How do today's radio stations find the time and money to develop future stars like Bubba? Or is he a dying breed?

In fairness, even in the "good old days" of the '80s and early '90s, there were only a handful of truly "national" talents. They're just hard to find. I see some very good young talent in many markets who will grow as time goes by. We have to be willing to invest in those people and the difficult climate means you have to selective.

PPM seems to have shaken up how radio formats its stations (ie: the rise of CBS' Now/AMP Top 40 format) How has PPM measurement changed the way Cox formats and programs stations?

We still think you have to do the basics. Spend the money to find out what listeners want and promote your station. Beyond that, since you are dealing with actual listening, there are some things in the presentation that are different from the tricks we used for diary recall. Radio people are adaptive, so when we know the rules we adjust. The problem is the lousy PPM samples make your choices problematic. If the data is wrong in the first place, how do you program to it? The sample sizes are just ridiculously small.

What's your take of the FCC probe into PPM over minority bias in its monitoring?

It's shame that it has come to this. Arbitron has been so poor at responding to its customers that an outside government agency has to be called upon to help. But Arbitron brought in on themselves by failing to have PPM ready for primetime, and rushing a rollout they have shown to be unprepared for. Whether any of us like it or not, Arbitron uses the public airwaves to encode PPM and make money. That gives the FCC a point of entry into the discussion. If they weren't allowed to use the public airwaves, there would be no PPM.

Cox has been a vocal critic of some of the PPM's methodology. Are you satisfied with how they're trying to improve their product? What kind of improvements do you want to see?

It's been two-and-a-half YEARS since Philadelphia went live and no MRC accreditation. How about that for a start? Over 800 days of selling a product that hasn't been proven to be valid. That's shameful. They continue to have sample problems, and I predict it will continue to get worse because of their ill-advised rollout schedule. They keep rolling out markets with more bad data instead of taking the time to get it right. Their BS line of "continuous improvement" is right up there with "the check is in the mail" and another less printable slogan that ... uh ... comes to mind.

Would you welcome a rival electronic measurement service, such as the one Nielsen is rumored to be developing? Can Cox afford to pay for two different electronic radio measuring systems?

Arbitron is in for a surprise when this round of initial PPM contracts expires. Broadcasters are going to have a tough decision to make. PPM has added millions to our expenses, just as revenue as been falling at a 30% rate. It was a bad deal before this economic meltdown, and now it is a catastrophe. I assure you, that huge fixed cost increase has cost people their jobs. If you're contracted to pay Arbitron these huge increases, you have to get the money somewhere. Frankly, we're going to have to decide whether electronic measurement is worth the cost when our revenue base starts 30% below where is was a few years back. We're excited that Nielson is in this game, and if they play their cards right and listen to their potential customers, they could gain a lot of business ... as they have already begun to.

Although the NAB has rounded up a majority of House members to oppose a performance royalty, how confident are you that the proposed legislation is DOA?

You're always stupid to underestimate opponents. The offshore record companies and their supporters will try and continue this process. What's sad to me is that many artists who were manipulated by the record companies into making bad deals for themselves are continuing to allow themselves to be used. Radio's relationship with record companies and artists has been simple: You provide us the songs to play, we help build your popularity and help you sell records and you get to keep all the profits. It's not radio's fault that the record companies paid the artists unfairly. They cut those deals with each other ... we didn't.

Were you worried about its passage to the point where you considered what kind of steps to take if it became law? One radio exec predicted that 25% of the music stations would flip to Talk ... agree?

Yes, there would be a complete change of the current model, and the foolishness of all of this is in the end there would be fewer music stations playing music and building sales and popularity for the record companies and artists. I do think some companies will move to a "you pay us for airplay" model ... and we would disclose that on the air for each paid airplay. Current law permits that. It would destroy the relationship Radio has had with artists, and that won't be good for either side.

There seems to be a fork in the road in terms of localism. On the one hand is radio's long-held and touted advantage of being local. On the other is Clear Channel's move towards more national dayparts and regional news hubs. What direction do you see Cox taking in the future?

We'll go where our listeners tell us. With all the research we do, we'll figure it out. They used to say Rush would never work because he wasn't local. On the other hand, there are plenty of national shows that don't really garner big audiences. Like I said earlier, there are so few truly national talents that local programming is going to be important for a long time. I do think we need to remember our responsibility is to serve our local communities at each station. That's not something some MBAs and number crunchers always understand.