Guy Zapoleon

Few people in radio can boast the experience and success in music radio programming than consultant Guy Zapoleon. After becoming Oldies KRTH/Los Angeles' first MD, Zapoleon went on to program heritage Top 40s such as WBZZ/Pittsburgh and KZZP/Phoenix and Hot AC KHMX/Houston. From there he started the Zapoleon Media Strategies consultancy in 1992, where he has continued to offer his insight into successful programming for stations nationwide. Here's his take on contemporary radio ... and its place in the Music Cycles.

First off, what's your view of the current state of music radio?

Music radio is in a fantastic place. We have more and more sources to find great music. We're at the height of the best part of the Music Cycle the Pop Rebirth Phase. We finally have a digital radio measurement that is giving us information faster than ever before to find out what works and what doesn't work.

At the same time, we have an entire generation that has grown up with radio being unimportant to them because radio didn't focus on teens; it was more interested in adults and being compatible for the workplace ... more on these thoughts later.

In your eyes, how has the PPM impacted radio?

There is has been some unhappiness over sample quality and size issues, but overall I think PPM has been really great. Most of what PPM reflects is really the same basics we followed in the '70s and '80s ... most of which are really common sense

There has been an evolution of radio from an active listening medium to a passive utility - or a "hearing" medium. That initially occurred when Arbitron designed the Colram diary designed by committee in 1989, headed up by a Soft AC owner, to better reflect the workplace diary, in which what was recorded could be hearing a radio in the background and not necessarily actively listening to that radio station.

The diary also required writing down listening at work from 9 to 5. Soon radio stations in every format were changing their sound and rotations to adapt to workplace listening, looking to avoid things that offended people rather than seeking to entertain.

Rick Cummings and I took on this owner at an NAB panel in 1990 about the dangers of this diary, how it was bad for active radio listening and how it could change the very nature of our medium. We all talked to our owners, but because they generally owned AC and Country stations -- and formats like Top 40 were going through the Doldrums Music Cycle -- they just accepted the new workplace diary. Then we wondered why workplace-friendly formats began to dominate Arbitrons in every single market across America. I was being told radio had to become a utility medium -- and not an entertainment medium that engaged listeners who wanted to actively listen (especially the teens of that era).

While workplace listening still remains important in the PPM methodology, we finally have a 21st century digital radio measurement that is real listening, not a 19th century paper-based methodology that is recalled listening, often filled out a week after the actual listening event occurred. We now can see drill down to real listening events and find out much quicker about what content works and what content doesn't work.

That's important because listeners have grown up with an instant-gratification expectation of good quality products they consume and a variety of choices to fit every mood. They won't stick around for content they don't like and won't come back again if the content isn't consistently satisfying. Now we know too many commercials are a problem; the more stopsets you have, the more the ratings suffer; and that two stopsets are best. It's better to cluster your spots straddling quarter-hours to have the widest space in the next quarter-hour, so you get a running start at getting full credit.

No one disputes the diary's tendency toward brand identification and perceived listening. But how can PPM accurately be called an active listening system when it picks up "dry cleaner listening" - ie; a PPM carrier hears a radio station that wasn't chosen and possibly not desired by that carrier? Isn't PPM, at least in some ways, a passive utility as well?

No doubt about that, which remains the same problem it did in 1990 when Colram was created. We are measured on what people hear vs. what people actually listen to ... and I remain a proponent of "Listen" and not "Hear." There is always a danger of too great a reward for passive listening at a time when radio really needs to focus on regaining a lost generation of listeners who are passionate about music and want an active, engaging medium.

Here's the problem -- and it's an economic one just as it was in 1989 when Colram was designed: Radio wants to get as much credit for usage as possible. In 1989, in an attempt to get more accurate ratings by putting lines between dayparts - so respondents could think more clearly about their actual listening -- the listening levels dropped dramatically. That meant that the Gross Rating Points, which media buyers and advertisers used to place buys, went down ... and radio's overall revenue went down. The Colram committee argued if you changed the definition to "Hear" instead of "Listen," then added a focus on the workplace, the usage credit would go back up, which they did ... and so did radio's revenue.

The same can be said today if we went back to "Listen." The good news to me is that you are seeing Active formats like Top 40 and Hot AC performing much better in PPM than they did in diary.

There are those who assert that the PPM's near-instant "real listening" data has prompted more than a few programmers to play it too safe in terms of "less is better" jock talk, which is turning some stations and formats into musical jukeboxes. Have you encountered programmers who have reacted in that way ... and how have you counseled them?

Yes, there is always a tendency to overreact to one rating survey - a tendency more prevalent than ever with each week being measured in PPM. We have to really understand that the sample size in one week of PPM data is small ... VERY, VERY small when you drill it down to demos, dayparts or days. So the same wisdom prevails today as it does with diary -- never react to one survey. One should really look at a trend of several months (not several weeks) on major decisions.

Radio cannot be a musical jukebox -- especially now when people already have the best personal musical jukebox ever created with iPods We have to keep our overall goals in mind -- to create compelling personalities who entertain and add to overall experience that radio provides, just like the music does. It's a fine balance. In music formats, the skilled programmers who coach talents and great talents themselves understand PPM and the need to entertain, but make their points in a timely fashion - such as how many topics to cover in a break, etc.

Could you add some clarity as to radio's current place in the Music Cycles?

We're at the peak of the Rebirth Cycle. We've had five great years, beginning with Kelly Clarkson reaching superstardom and the swelling popularity of teen idol Justin Timberlake, who brought Pop Music back to Top 40 radio as N' Sync did in 1997. Today we have a great amount of Pop Music with the Rebirth cycle at its peak, from Lady Gaga to Katy Perry, Britney Spears, Usher and the Black Eyed Peas.

Every format is more Pop, including Hot AC, AC, Rhythmic Top 40 ... even Alternative plays more Pop/Rock. But after Jay-Z's success last year and Eminem debuting at #1 on the album charts and holding with two top-10 singles, it's plain to see that R&B and Hip-Hop are making a comeback ... and the Extremes of the Music Cycle are on the horizon.

When you say "Extremes are on the horizon," how far away is that horizon? Will it be only Hip-Hop Extreme or will there be an extreme in Alternative and Rock Extremes at the same time?

During Extremes there is always a tendency for the pendulum to swing dramatically toward one side or the other, which means that Top 40 formats will over-focus on what the hits are ... and if that's R&B and Hip-Hop, they'll go overboard playing that one style. With formats that have gone more pop, such as Alternative radio, Urban/Rhythmic stations and even AC/Hot AC, those formats will go back to format purity and less Pop. . In the past, you've seen Rock and R&B both get more extreme at Top 40, such as in the late '80s with the Hair bands and Hard rockers like Guns N Roses and Soundgarden crossing over to Top 40, but Top 40 itself never got too Rock-based (except for a few Rock 40s). The R&B and Hip-Hop explosion in the '80s brought to life the Rhythmic Top 40 format. So both extremes happened, but usually it's been a Rhythmic Extreme or a Rock Extreme.

What should mainstream Pop stations do to best weather an imminent Extreme Music cycle?

It's so important to understand the nature of your format and what listeners expect from it musically. If you're a variety radio station, whether its plays hits from a variety of different music styles (Mainstream Top 40) or eras (Hot AC and Mainstream AC), you always have to maintain a balance of music styles. It's pretty simple in theory, but difficult in practice because what partly what creates the Extremes or Doldrums -- besides the normal swing of the pendulum -- is a self-fulfilling prophecy that radio can fall into during the times. If you play only what's hot, you feed on the same music styles over and over again. It takes a lot of discipline to not fall into this trap, to be open to playing a lot of different music styles even when those style aren't the hot styles.

I always give Tom Poleman, Sharon Dastur and Paul "Cubby" Bryant a lot of credit in the early part of this decade -- when I first started working with Z100 -- because they refused to fall into the Extremes and not play Pop/Rock music even when it didn't test in callout initially (and it finally did). They knew that Z100 would have fallen into the same trap it did five years earlier when it became an Extreme format (Pop/Rock-based Top 40). Of course, Z100 continued to enjoy great ratings.

Has the advent of the PPM impacted the cycles in any way - ie: the length of the cycle, the boundaries of the Extreme or Doldrums, etc.

Since PPM is a measurement of what happens naturally, it shouldn't have a major impact on the Extremes or Doldrums. It's all about the interpretation of PPM information that will determine the intensity of the Music Cycles and the length of them.

Describe the way you consult stations these days.

We look at every radio station and its market situation as unique. Even though there tactics that work across formats, we start at the ground floor, study the history of the radio station and market, then talk to the GM and PD as well, to understand the station's strengths and weaknesses, as well as the competitive challenges. Then we listen to the station ourselves to form our own opinion, so we can give our clients the very best advice and help them shape the best strategy to improve ratings and revenue.

My partners at Zapoleon Media Strategies -- Mark St John and Steve Davis -- and I have programmed or consulted radio for 25-30 years each, consulting over 500 radio stations in multiple formats, but specializing in Hot AC and Top 40, so we've got a tremendous knowledge base with which to advise clients.

How much of your consulting is now being devoted to a station's digital strategies?

Let's face it: We know that at some point, a large percentage of radio listening on the go will be done via cell phone - and more of the listening at home will be done through the Internet. It's critical that if we're going to get that lost generation - those under 24 -- to fall in love again with radio, a digital presence is absolutely critical. You see great radio stations like Z100 New York have great websites with ever-changing compelling content. Clear Channel has their major markets available on smart phones through iHeartRadio.

Even with the economy being in the state it's in, there has to be a focus on making your website as streamlined and compelling as it can be, featuring the best on-demand content from your morning show and radio station. You are slowly seeing companies develop to consult websites and radio stations online content.

That's the second time you cited the importance reclaiming the "lost generation" of teens and under-24s. Here's a three-part question to that: First, do you feel that offering its product on new platforms such as websites and social media ... that alone ... will do the trick?

No, it's like anything else. If there isn't any real strong new Internet or cell phone platform super-serving teens by playing their hits -- whether it's Pop, Rock or R&B-based -- and doing a better job at it than radio, then radio will have that opportunity to recapture the lost generation for five to 10 more years.

Secondly, does playing hit (Mainstream Pop) content, a la Katy Perry, Black Eyed Peas and Lady Gaga, really attract a generation that's increasingly getting turned on to new music from other sources?

No, not exactly. I honestly think radio needs to create more teen-targeted formats. It's about playing hits, but identifying hits much faster than radio does now and making them more readily available way, I found the Ceelo "F**K You" song 10 days ago and was playing it for my fiancée and a bunch of friends. When I played it for Matt, her 19-year-old son, he looked at me and smiled, saying, "I found that song a month ago and all my friends were posting it on their Facebook pages." That's truly how far ahead teens are ... sometimes six months to a year ahead on future hits.

Thirdly, how can radio take more chances when it's playing the hits now more than ever?

When it comes to terrestrial radio, it's always going to be a challenge - and it's obviously going to be a bigger challenge to appeal to a broader demo to get ratings ... and be far enough ahead to get teens. But while it may be a challenge for terrestrial radio, a cell phone-specific, Internet or even HD format could be the first youth-based option that radio provides.

One thing terrestrial Top 40 can do now is include them is target 3p-5a with that kind of music and content ... and even earlier during the summer. They can also attract teens by giving them great pop culture content on their websites ... and by offering music downloads/exclusives they can't get anywhere else. Z100 does the best job with its website of any radio station on the planet.

How much cannibalization is there when similar-formatted stations from around the country are available via streaming? When streaming becomes more popular, is there a chance a Top 40 in Fargo, for example, will lose listenership to a Top 40 in L.A., New York or Chicago - and if that is possible, how should a smaller market station respond via the web?

Inevitably, at some point there will be more competition for local affiliates of a given format ... and they will lose listeners, whether that comes from a national version of the same format or from a similar format on Internet itself. Hopefully, at some point in the distant future there will be a handful of great local radio stations that focus on being "local" and taking care of the communities they live in. These stations will continue to survive, with the remaining stations being syndicated stations

The key for the longevity of a local station is doing brilliant basics -- great personalities, great content -- and creating a compelling web presence with contests and content, all of which reflect the great brand it has created with its terrestrial station. The future of radio depends on eventually being able to reside on the Internet by giving listeners enough of what they need to survive and enjoy, so you become integrated into their daily lives. Being an integral part of the listener's daily life is what the great radio stations of the past and present do.

Are you consulting HD stations? What is your opinion of them ... and how they should be programmed to complement the analog stations?

I don't consult HD stations. When it started, I thought that a lot of effort was being placed on HD when that time and money should have been going into making the terrestrial stations better. HD Radio itself doesn't have a lot of listeners. Obviously they can are be option for fans who want different slices and variations of formats; that could be important when radio fights with satellite and Internet radio for space on the cell phone or home delivery device of the future.

There will be close 100,000 stations at some point, but obviously only a fraction of them will continue to exist ... once the listeners make their choices of which ones they want. Again, it's all about creating the great brands of the future ... and I truly believe that many of those options will be Top 40s with great, compelling brands like Z100.

Despite the fact that you consult each station individually and tailor your perspective to their particular situation, by and large, are there certain things you think music stations should do differently should a performance royalty become a reality?

That certainly is an expense that radio really doesn't need when it's FINALLY getting out of the red and into the black again. It's an interesting challenge for radio because it can't adjust its programming to a performance royalty without affecting its quality. With all the difficulties the two have with each other at times, radio has always been a great partner for the music business by giving new songs airplay, helping to create public awareness of new artists, creating new fans for the labels' catalogue of older hits, and helping to sell music(such as it is). I'm sure going forward radio and the music business will find better ways to partner so both can benefit from the relationship.

You've been doing this for decades, from the fat-and-happy era of decades past to the belt-tightening era of mega-consolidation, which must've impacted the number of clients you could get. How do you see the role of consultants evolving in the near future ... and where do you see your participation and interest in this business going in the longer term?

The people who have consulted over the past 30 years, in all the formats, are some of the very best and brightest people in radio ... and I'm proud to be part of that fraternity. There will always be a need for brilliant minds in our business regardless of what you categorize them as. I've always been a believer in the old adage that the more ideas you can get into the pipeline before finalizing your decision, the better chance you have of making the right one ... why not take out that insurance policy?

I've had an opportunity to continue to mentor people over the time I've been a consultant, and have had a chance to work with some brilliant programmers, such as CC's Tom Poleman, CBS' Greg Strassell, Entercom's Pat Paxton and a host of others. I'll continue to do offer advice, consult and look for new and different ways to help radio become even better and learn about their listeners. I got into the business for three reasons -- I love radio, I love music and I love helping people ... and I will continue to do those things.