Situational Awareness

Even So-Called Formatic Perfectionists Must Stay Alert

"Situational awareness" is a term used primarily by pilots to describe a form of constant alertness and readiness they need to avoid unexpected challenges in flight. Radio has a similar need. In addition to knowing what the mission and goal of your station is, you also need to be really alert to what lies ahead so you're not caught by surprise and unprepared. You still have to ask the right questions, if only in your own mind.

Although our industry has, the questions haven't really changed much in the last few months. Radio companies, just like the airlines, want to know how to generate more revenue and contain costs. So the airlines now charge for luggage, food and even a better coach seat. They've cut pilots' salaries and benefits. Radio stations have made similar moves. In addition, they've adopted flexible, adjustable rate cards, and require those of us who want to work in the product end (programming) to eliminate live overnight shows, add syndication and voicetracking and get used to shift stretching along with having limited or no callout research.

The GMs and market managers have not really changed the way they handle dealing with programmers. It can vary from "Just get me some numbers, stay within budget and you'll never hear from me," to "I know we're a young-end station, but the sales department needs more adults. Can we get some 'old heads' and still keep our young-end audience happy? And can we do it without increasing the budget or staff?"

Sometimes it's kind of like "mission impossible." You're tempted to say "you can't have it both ways," because often the amount of time it takes to make the adjustments necessary to capture some "side cume" may be considered unrealistic by many managers who do not come from (nor fully understand or appreciate) Urban programming strategies.

Experienced programmers' "situational awareness" means always looking beyond the music for new ways to create great radio. We need to find ways to update and fine-tune the station's sound. The formats remain challenged the same way they were earlier. The new challenge means taking care of core customers, but at the same time rising to the task of expanding the demos. Urban AC-formatted stations need younger listeners, while Urban stations need more adults.

The Internet has changed everything. The biggest challenge now for both Urban formats is how can we wrap ourselves around the multi-platform experience that we know all of our listeners and potential listeners are dealing with? The Internet has been a game changer, along with satellite radio, iPods and various other media forms. In many markets they have far outpaced commercial radio in general and Urban formats in particular. Situational awareness in this case means looking beyond today toward the future. The future is meeting aggregating audiences on all these other platforms.

Political Programmers & Micro-Strategies

There's a really good comparison to be made between great programmers and successful politicians. Much like politicians, radio programmers are trying to get the most votes. Politicians want their votes from the Electoral College, while programmers hope to collect "votes" from those listeners with Arbitron diaries and meters. The big difference is that in politics, if you get one bad turnout, you're out of office. Programmers, even in this economy, usually get at least two down books before they have to pack it in.

Urban radio today is faced with an interesting conundrum, in that many stations initially build their audience by trading on a heritage position with the baby boomers in the market that Urban AC stations have abandoned. Their challenge now is how do they manage to keep older listeners happy while appealing to a growing, younger audience? The answer is micro-strategies. You probably have a good idea of which group of listeners is using what media and the age of each one of these groups. So now you focus your strategies on each one of these groups. You actually use each of your different platforms to address various segments of the market. You might want to use your Internet to address one demographic. Every time you think of a concept, you should also think about how you can extend it across every single platform. It begins with a mindset that instantly recognizes that you're not just creating content for one platform. So if you have an idea, you should build it out on all platforms from the get-go. When you come with an idea for radio you should also identify what the web component is going to look like. Can you produce a podcast around it? What is it going to look like in your blog? All of this will help to broaden your brand awareness.

Understanding The Numbers

Part of "situational awareness" involves understanding the numbers that can make a difference in your career and life. The numbers we're referring to, obviously, are Arbitron numbers. Whether your market is currently being measured by the diary or the PPM, there is a story behind the numbers. In addition to going through the book, if it's available, you should use PD Advantage. Believe it or not, the best time to do an analysis is after you've had a good book. Why? Well, because it's hard to find something that isn't there. You have to market to develop new listeners, and usually, unless your station does something to reverse it, cume is always going down.

If the last book you had was good, you could easily say that yours has become a favorite station for your core audience, but that's somewhat illusory. Favorite station is a value judgment, not any measure of listening. Those diary-keepers and meter-wearers who credited your station may or may not be partisans. Another common usage term is "loyal audience." That doesn't mean anything, either. There's no definition for loyalty. It's whatever you want it to be.

With no real consensus of what constitutes a so-called "heavy listener," it is probably best defined as anyone listening to a single station for more than 100 quarter-hours in a given week. Imagine someone who spends 25 hours a week with your station. Approximately 39% of your quarter-hours will come from heavy listeners. If they credit your station, you're glad, but it can't help but make you wonder what some of these people do with their busy lives in these fast times. Regardless, these heavy listeners dramatically affect your station's ratings. When stations are up in the Winter and down in the Spring, you should immediately look for these heavy listeners. Sometimes, a really strong, well-executed contest or promotion can cause these ratings swings.

The average listener tunes in to a strong station three to four days a week. Now this is a station with consistently strong ratings and it could still mean you're not mentioned three to six days in a given week.

Not surprisingly and regardless of format, Arbitron survey's first day -- Thursday for the diary and Monday for PPM -- is usually the highest for listening. It triggers survey enthusiasm and you very typically find people get more involved with the process. They'll listen to more radio stations on those days. While it's interesting, it doesn't mean they'll listen to your station more.

Stations get nearly 60% of their total week's cume on Thursday or Monday. Friday is about 55%. The quarter-hour is at about the same percentage level. In examining successful Urban stations across America, however, we've also seen Mondays, Tuesdays and Fridays as the day in which the highest listening occurred.

Speaking of buying, there are some GMs who overreact and buy into the misguided precept that it's time to fire their PD and/or change formats behind one or two books of dwindling digits. We personally knew of an owner/GM who was preparing for a major format change after his station's rank dropped from third to sixth in adults 25-54. What he hadn't noticed was that his average quarter-hour rating of 2.5 was the same in both books, while two other stations in non-competitive formats had enjoyed unusual upward spikes.

To help everyone avoid similar unnecessary pain owing to ratings misunderstanding, we thought we'd share a couple thoughts. Sample size and the size of the audience are key determinants of the theoretical error and range around an estimate in which weighting and sampling vagaries must be considered.

In the meantime, here is something to think about: If you just had a great book, make certain it really is great (statistically significant upward movement unrelated to seasonal patterns). Even if it truly is a great book or monthly, take it in stride and remember the law of gravity. If you had a bad book, remember what goes up must come down and vice-versa. And if it was truly bad, don't take it too hard. Some of the best programmers in the business, me included, have had a bad book or two. But we would never have been able to adjust and recover without the help of a truly bad book. Those adjustments are all part of "situational awareness." Situational awareness means knowing that the unexpected always happens. You just need to be better prepared.

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