Coleman Insights: How To Spot A Real Hit From A Viral Video
February 18, 2015 at 3:57 AM (PT)
COLEMAN INSIGHTS's MATT BAILEY writes in the fourth in a series about how listeners engage with music across traditional and emerging platforms that "YOUTUBE has emerged as a key medium for music consumption and discovery, especially among teens and young adults. CARLY RAE JEPSEN’s 'Call Me Maybe' broke on YOUTUBE. PSY’s 'Gangnam Style' became a cultural touch point on YOUTUBE. Other songs’ videos, such as BAAUER’s 'Harlem Shake' and REBECCA BLACK’s 'Friday,' also racked up record-setting views, but weren’t what we would traditionally consider hit songs."
BAILEY notes, "The same general hit song life cycle that we observed for radio and for on-demand services also holds true for the broader streaming category including YOUTUBE: Songs are typically growing in their first eight weeks, the majority of the biggest Top 10 songs are between nine and 20 weeks old and songs are typically in decline after 20 weeks. Secondly, the vast majority of the biggest hits on radio and on-demand are the exact same songs that are the biggest hits when we also include YouTube views.
"However, we did uncover a handful of songs that emerge as Top 10 most-streamed songs much earlier than songs typically do specifically because of their success on video services such as YOUTUBE. Does a high volume of YOUTUBE views shortly after a song’s release predict the song will be a hit?
"The vast majority of the songs that become overnight YOUTUBE sensations are obviously irrelevant to your radio station: WEIRD AL YANKOVIC’s 'Word Crimes' became a most-streamed song overnight, but we know you weren’t expecting it to be a real hit in the long run no matter how many times you saw it on FACEBOOK."
How can you tell the difference between a hit of the year and a viral video of the week?
- Songs that people mainly watch for the video typically become Top 10 streaming hits in their first four weeks, but tend to disappear almost as quickly as they emerge. Seventy-four percent (74%) of songs that become Top 10 on the Streaming Songs chart within their first four weeks stay Top 10 for less than four weeks
- Songs that become Top 10 hits beyond YOUTUBE typically take longer than four weeks to establish themselves as Top 10 hits, but are much more likely to remain hits for weeks to come. Of songs that took more than four weeks to become Top 10 on the Streaming Songs chart, 68% of those songs stay Top 10 songs for four or more weeks
Check out the full blog post here.