CL King Report: It's Gonna Get Worse
November 25, 2008 at 5:25 AM (PT)
On the heels of the RAB third-quarter revenue figures released late FRIDAY (NET NEWS 11/21), CL KING & ASSOCIATES analyst JIM BOYLE writes, "The last time radio saw such a deep and discouraging falloff in revenue, THE LONE RANGER was wrapping up its radio run and EISENHOWER was president."
The bad news continues, with OCTOBER being the 18th straight month of down revenues, and 2008 the eighth straight struggling year. "With OCTOBER revenue down 10% and off 7% year to date, radio is headed for the worst year since 1954, down 9%, says BOYLE. Revenue fell 7% in 2001, compared to a 12% increase in 2000. "If the recession lasts for all of 2009 and the weakness persists in many of the major radio ad categories, such as auto, to a point where spending severely plunges, then it may be 2010 or beyond before radio revives."
The last time radio saw such a deep and discouraging falloff in revenue, The Lone Ranger was wrapping up its radio run and Eisenhower was President.
Small markets have bested their large-market bretheren in 19 of the last 20 months reports CL KING's analysis. During that time, the average small-market radio has grown revenue by 0.6% a month, while the average large market has seen revs dip by 4% per month. BOYLE observed, "Ironically, a few large radio groups have been or are selling off their relatively smaller-market stations to rationalize their giant platforms, which might be a plus for all involved."