Ad Revs Will Drop 14.5% Says Magna Global
July 14, 2009 at 5:05 AM (PT)
U.S. advertising revenue may drop 14.5% this year and continue to decline until an economic recovery sparks growth near the end of 2010, MAGNA GLOBAL said. BLOOMBERG reports MAGNA's Forecasting Dir. BRIAN WIESER expects "revenue may fall to $161.4 billion after declining 7.5% in 2008, with newspapers hit the hardest by marketers and readers defecting to the Internet.
"Between ‘08 and ‘09 you’re seeing almost a quarter of the market evaporating," WEISER said in an interview. "The economy’s driving it."
"The ad market may fall to $157.9 billion next year, the lowest since 1998, according to MAGNA. Growth will return in the fourth quarter of 2010 with a 1% gain, led by cable- television and online ads, according to WIESER and MAGNA’s forecast data.
"From 2009 to 2014, U.S. advertising may increase at a compound annual rate of 0.9%, WIESER said. Revenue dropped 18 percent in the second quarter, he estimates.
"MAGNA’s 2009 ad prediction is more pessimistic than a JULY 6th report by rival media-research firm ZENITHOPTIMEDIA GROUP LTD., which estimated a drop of 10.6% in U.S. ad sales this year. ZENITHOPTIMEDIA, a PUBLICIS GROUPE SA unit, said worldwide spending this year will drop 8.5% to about $456 billion. It previously predicted a 6.9% decline."