Revised Magna Forecast: Ad Market Flat
January 20, 2010 at 4:30 AM (PT)
INTERPUBLIC’s MAGNA has issued an updated 2010 forecast, upgrading its outlook -- just a tick -- for the U.S. advertising market. SVP/Global Forecasting BRIAN WIESER said he now anticipates normalized advertising revenues will be "effectively flat this year, only 0.1 percent below 2009 levels." That reassessment reverses MAGNA’s DECEMBER, 2009, projection of a 1.3% decline in stateside ad revenue.
The forecast projects for all types of media, but local radio is projected at $12.8 billion in ad revenues in 2010, which would be down 2.5% from 2009's $13.1 billion. For 2011, MAGNA expects a 10% drop for local radio, to $12.6 billion.
Local radio is projected at $12.8 billion in ad revenues in 2010, which would be down 2.5% from 2009's $13.1 billion.
MAGNA projeccts network and satellite radio revenues of $1.1 billion in 2010, up 2%, with a gain of 3% in 2011, to $1.2 billion.
Local political spending and national TV Olympic revenues are expected to be strong for the year. WIESER now expects that U.S. media will generate $161 billion in ad revenue this year. When political and Winter Olympics dollars are factored in, 2010 ad dollars will add up to $164.3 billion, an increase of 1.4% from a year ago.
WIESER predicts election spots will add $2.74 billion to the advertising marketplace, while the OLYMPICA will add $487.5 million.
The big winners in 2010 are forecast to be National TV, with $35.3 billion in ad revenues, up 6.2% from last year’s $33.3 billion, Direct online ad spending, expected to grow 12.2% to $15.6 billion; national online ad spending, with growth as much as 4% to $5.77 billion; and direct mail.
It will be another tough year for print, with WIESER expecting a 10.7% decline for newspapers.