Bridge Ratings Releases Latest Digital Media Use Projections
March 14, 2006 at 6:05 AM (PT)
BRIDGE RATINGS has released its latest look at the company's on-going study of audience attrition of traditional radio and subscriber and user growth of alternative digital media (first published in MARCH of 2005 and then again in DECEMBER).
While the company's estimates showed solid growth for satellite radio during 2005, data updated through March 2006 indicates a continued positive growth pattern for the foreseeable future. Presently, BRIDGE estimates that XM will reach between 9 and 10 million subscribers by year end -- up 50% over the company's 2005 year-end number. Meanwhile, BRIDGE estimates that SIRIUS satellite radio should climb to approximately 6 million at the close of 2006 for a combined satellite subscriber count of 15-16 million.
The company is now projecting HD Radio's growth and though very small market penetration currently exists (555,000 by year end of 2006), best efforts to project have HD improving to 46 million by 2020 -- on a par with either satcaster.
The company found that Internet radio could greatly benefit from pervasive Wi-Max or Wide Area Wireless Access which will bring Internet radio over wide distances to portable devices, including car radios by 2008.
Said BRIDGE RATINGS Pres. DAVE VAN DYKE, "The compiled data indicates that at this point in time, projected total subscribers to satellite radio should reach over 53 million by 2010 and could approach 100 million by 2020. However, we are being cautious with projections that far out due to the unpredictable nature of technology development that may impact satellite radio growth as well as how quickly terrestrial HD Radio can ramp up."
Continued VAN DYKE, "HD growth is slower than previously thought due to conservative estimates related to the automotive market component and slow adoption by the majority of consumers. It is difficult to project how quickly the auto industry will embrace the technology. We expect that the advent of HD radio and the increasing growth of Internet radio will slow original growth projections for satellite radio."
To see projections for 2005-2010, visit www.bridgeratings.com and click on "Updated Digital Media Use Projections."