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Days Of Future Past - Part One
October 26, 2007
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"If your environment is changing, you must change with it. If you don't, you perish."
-- Curtis E. SahakianMany readers send me e-mails to discuss weekly commentaries and I'm always happy when I can answer their questions by pulling out archived columns.
In doing so recently, I went through 300- plus pages of content and pulled out some comments that I thought many of you might find interesting (and in some cases, prophetic, though I'm no psychic) and well-worth revisiting.
"How did it come to this? Did we suddenly wake up one day and realize that 60 to 100 million people were downloading music for free from a myriad of websites globally, and that's the reason the music industry is in dire straits? Sure, file-sharing and downloading can be blamed for some of the problems inherent in the industry today, but to point a finger at the Internet and say it's the prime reason for the music industry's ills is just plain irresponsible and without merit. Any software programmer will tell you the hardcore (ugly) truth is this: Anything that can be encoded digitally, decoded and replicated with a little work. It's time the labels recognize this fact, accept it, and now spend time brainstorming on how new revenue streams can be created within the framework of all the technology at hand. Steve Jobs is doing that with Apple's iTunes and in its early stages, Mr. Jobs has shown that with savvy marketing and a good online product, people will actually pay for music downloads. Surprise! And look at sales of Apple's iPods!" -- 11/14/03
"So now what? Is it over for the industry? Yes and no. As it exists today, the music industry is a monolith that grew in size because of mergers and by big labels gobbling up smaller labels (many who just did what the big labels used to do, they focused on artists and ARTIST DEVELOPMENT) that showed great signs of success. The current and old monolith sales/distribution model is in its final stages as new media spreads like wildfires across the globe. wherever people can plug-in and get connected. So, no, the industry is far from over. It needs to build its new revenue model(s) around making the Internet an ally instead of an enemy. It will provide a cost-effective distribution system direct to the music consumer at a fraction of what it costs to manufacture CDs, package them, ship them to retail, advertise them (the term "co-op advertising" has always been an real oxymoron), taking returns, taking back defectives, etc., etc." - 11/21/03
"There is no such thing as having too many customers, and no business is safe from shifting trends and changes in the marketplace today, as consumers have more choices than ever where to spend their disposable income. The most beneficial type of partnering companies can engage in is partnering with other companies that can provide compelling benefits for their customers. If used properly, the partnerships can be used to gain customers, protect them from predation by competitors, and protect profit margins. Of course, opening the doors to create such alliances means "thinking outside of the box" more than ever. But the rewards can be extraordinary." - 11/27/03
"With the Internet and folks burning copies of best-selling CDs on their PCs (which have replaced the stereo in many college dorm rooms and in the bedrooms of most high school students) for friends, customer retention should now be in the minds of all those in marketing at all labels." - 12/3/03
"New artists (not new records, NEW ARTISTS ... there's a big difference) are the lifeblood of both the radio and record industries. No matter what format music is played on (CD, mp3 players, computers, etc.) in the future, the opportunities to generate a healthy consumer market exists if NEW artists are established and the best minds in the industry meet with some of the best minds in technology and new media to ensure these artists will not only be heard, but that the means of distributing their music now and in the future can be profitable." - 1/6/04
At the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas last week, Sen. John Sununu (R-N.H.) and seven other senators criticized the RIAA's practice of suing alleged file-sharers. Calling the legal moves of the RIAA heavy-handed and against the intent of both copyright laws and the Digital Millennium Copyright Act, Sununu said: "The fundamental problem with the approach of the RIAA is that it was based on legislation that created special property rights. Suddenly, you had a private entity that's able to issue subpoenas, which is unprecedented. That's not what the DMCA was intended to do. We can't be writing legislation that gives holders of certain types of intellectual property special rights ... We can't carve out special legislation to give special powers to certain types of content." Rep. Joe Barton, (R-TX) said: "I don't agree you're going to get teenagers and young people to believe they're doing something immoral. The industry has to decide on a different model." -- 1/13/04
"If all the websites around the world offering free downloads could be eliminated tomorrow, it wouldn't stop people from burning multiple copies of CDs. If all the websites around the world offering free downloads could be eliminated tomorrow, it wouldn't change the fact that CD prices are still too high. If all the websites around the world offering free downloads could be eliminated tomorrow, it wouldn't mean that all the money being spent on vide games, DVDs, movies and other recreational diversions would be redirected to improved retail music sales. If the industry attacks these problems head-on, one by one, it will do itself a greater service than all the lawsuits it could ever file." - 4/7/04
"Free concerts with artists that radio gets by cutting deals with labels, contests that radio gets by cutting deals with labels, and spinning mostly trendy and disposable music will not provide long-term health or stability. If anybody at radio is buying into that theory, they won't be in radio very long. I believe there's probably great talent out there somewhere right now in radio ... and maybe there's a programmer who has the same idea. Imagine turning on a radio station and NOT wanting to turn it off because it's that good. It's happened before, it can happen again. I hope someone has the courage to try SOMETHING before too long. Maybe then someone will be able to say, "It's NOT radio...It's XXXX (Insert call letters here)" -- 6/11/04
"The Internet allows musicians to market their own product. They don't need record labels to find customers. The Internet allows consumers to find music that they want to buy--a kind of inverse marketing. In short, the perception is record labels make money by getting between buyers and sellers while the Internet allows buyers and sellers to deal directly with each other. As the Internet becomes a more viable distribution channel for music, record labels become superfluous. They slowly evaporate. Again, assuming they don't create their online strategic plan NOW. There is more creative talent out there than what the public gets to hear on radio or see on MTV and elsewhere. Distribution of music over the Internet has now become prevalent and it's growing in ever-expansive numbers. To continue to fight against this new media is simply futile. If the music industry at large REALLY cares about preserving itself in some meaningful form, then it's high noon and time to get a new sheriff in Dodge City. The RIAA isn't even a meaningful deputy, let alone an acting sheriff." -- 6/18/04
"The new number-one album debut in BILLBOARD for next week is "NOW 16 - That's What I Call Music." There really is no need to explain why a collection of "20 Chart Topping Hits!" outsells all the quality and other albums out there. All one need do is look at what's been going on in the industry for the past decade (lack of real artist development; disposable music; flavor-of-the-month records; etc.) and there you have it, the old adage, "When you have lemons, make lemonade." -- 8/7/04
"The next generation of unsigned artists is already iPod users and computer-savvy beyond our wildest dreams. They can record their own albums in garages or basements using ProTools and other programs that result in their music sounding as good as any professional recording that used to cost hundreds of thousands of dollars. Sooner or later these same artists will realize their own future can be sound and secure financially with online exposure to a global market. " --1/14/05
"Of course those ubiquitous iPods are one big reason everything has changed. But in actuality, the iPod is just one piece of the digital landscape that keeps changing as often as the California coastline after the fires, rains and mudslides. With the changes in the next generation of mobile phones, Wi-Fi expanding its area reach, and newer, faster, and smaller hand-held PCs and Blackberry-type devices that can do more, pretty soon those Dick Tracy wristwatches that seemed so futuristic years ago will be outdated." - 3/11/05
"New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer's announcement that Sony would pay a $10 million fine as settlement for alleged wrong-doings as a result of his ongoing 'payola' investigation kind of took the wind out of the proverbial sails on everything else I might've wanted to discuss this week. What's truly sad is that this news has been reported heavily by the media and that so much of what should've been reported about this story wasn't. Independent labels are already making statements that the playing field 'has been leveled' now and they see the Sony/BMG settlement as the dawn of a new era for them to expose their artists at radio. Sadly, they are delusional if they believe this. With independent promotion now under the spotlight more than ever before, independent promotion people will be shut out at more radio and used less by labels. Who then will be the voice of independent artists/labels at radio? Independent labels who think they now have 'a level playing field' might become the biggest losers of all because the good hard-working independent promotion people who have been their voice at radio will likely be diminished in their roles, as stations write new rules about who they conduct business with." -- 7/20/05
And finally, this gem from THE ONION awhile back:
RIAA Bans Telling Friends About Songs
(November 30, 2005) LOS ANGELES-The Recording Industry Association of America announced Tuesday that it will be taking legal action against anyone discovered telling friends, acquaintances, or associates about new songs, artists, or albums. "We are merely exercising our right to defend our intellectual properties from unauthorized peer-to-peer notification of the existence of copyrighted material," a press release signed by RIAA anti-piracy director Brad Buckles read. "We will aggressively prosecute those individuals who attempt to pirate our property by generating 'buzz' about any proprietary music, movies, or software, or enjoy same in the company of anyone other than themselves." RIAA attorneys said they were also looking into the legality of word-of-mouth "favorites-sharing" sites, such as coffee shops, universities, and living rooms. -- From THE ONION, http://www.theonion.com/content/node/43029.
And Now This...
"Despite popular conception, Apple did not invent the digital portable music player. What Apple did was take a product that was slowly working itself into the hands of willing consumers and make it sexy. In addition to making the product attractive to consumers, Apple was able to sell the concept of portable digital music, just as it had with home computing decades earlier. But even as consumers have purchased Apple's devices in droves, they've come to realize that there's more to digital music than what's contained in the little white box. Other, arguably superior devices are now on the market; more are being introduced regularly. These players offer features that will become the sustaining elements of the digital entertainment revolution--they will be smart devices with IP connectivity and increased onboard storage." -- Alan McGlade, president and CEO of MediaNet Digital.
While Mr. McGlade might be right about Apple not inventing the digital portable music player, he shouldn't underestimate the capabilities of one of the world's most-innovative companies in staying well ahead of the curve with whatever is next down the road.
I would suggest he also research what "superior devices are now on the market' and if in fact, they are superior, why haven't tech magazines and websites been talking about them? Certainly, he can't mean Microsoft's Zune?
Yes, there will be "smart devices with IP connectivity and increased onboard storage." But why Mr. McGlade doesn't believe Apple already knows this is quite puzzling.
And This...
"If you do build a great experience, customers tell each other about that. Word of mouth is very powerful." -- Amazon.com founder and CEO, Jeff Bezos.
There's tremendous buzz about Amazon's music store and how it's gaining at the expense of almost all competitors.
One reason of course is the fact that the Amazon store supports DRM-free downloads. Another reason is its low prices. It's also amazingly easy to take your downloaded music from Amazon and transfer it to your iPod or other digital devices.
Amazon just declared third-quarter profits of $80 million, and that's a BIG increase from the $19 million earned in the same quarter of 2006. Sales were up 41% from the same quarter last year as well.
Jeff Bezos has created a successful online music store in very fast time, and in the process, showed yet again how much can be done to generate revenues online, if the right thought processes are put to practice.
Way to go, Jeff!
Apple Earnings Soar, 1.4 million iPhones Sold To Date
Apple reported another stellar quarter Monday, exceeding estimates in just about every facet of its business. For the company's fourth fiscal quarter, which ended September 29, the company reported revenue of $6.22 billion and profit of $904 million, or $1.01 in earnings per share. Wall Street analysts had expected Apple to report revenue of $6.1 billion and earnings per share of 86 cents, according to estimates compiled by Thomson Financial.
Apple has now sold 1.39 million iPhones, and 1.1 million during the quarter, the company reported. Mac shipments were up 34 percent compared to last year, and iPod shipments were up 17 percent.
Read more about it by clicking here.
More to Mac Sales Than A Halo
For years, as the iPod took over the digital music player market, we all wondered whether it was a one-hit wonder, whether Apple could translate that success into increased Mac market share. Millions of people who might not have used an Apple product since they spent the third grade playing Oregon Trail on an Apple II were re-introduced to Apple through the iPod, and for the last year or so, they would appear to be trying the other things on the menu.
Read more about it by clicking here.
Music Piracy Site Closed After U.K., Dutch Raids
British and Dutch police shut down one of the world's largest sources of illegal pre-release music on Tuesday and arrested a 24-year-old man. The raids in Amsterdam and the northeast English city of Middlesbrough followed a two-year investigation into a members-only wWebsite, which allowed users to upload and download albums before their release.
Pre-release leaks have become one of the most damaging forms of piracy for the music industry, which is struggling with falling sales. Recorded music sales have fallen by more than a third in the last six years, the industry says. An estimated 180,000 members paid "donations" via debit or credit cards for OiNK's catalog of music and other media.
Read more about it by clicking here.
AT&T To Deliver Napster Songs Directly To Phones
AT&T, the biggest U.S. mobile service, said on Monday it would offer wireless song downloads from Napster's digital music service, expanding an existing agreement. AT&T, which already lets Napster subscribers transfer music from their personal computer to their cell phone via a cable or a storage card, said it would sell Napster music directly on its phones for $7.49 for a bundle of five songs, or $1.99 for a la carte purchases, beginning in mid-November.
Read more about it by clicking here.
SpiralFrog Signs Licensing Agreement With Sony/ATV
Spiral Frog says the agreement will expand its legal music downloads since artists are compensated for their works.
Read more about it by clicking here.
Inside Apple: The Spots on Leopard
When Apple announced the ship date for the much-anticipated Leopard OS last week, it ended a lot of speculation about the new operating system and its features. What the company didn't say, however, is if it intends a refresh for Apple hardware like MacBooks. As always, PC Magazine's Think Secret staff has its theories and has been nosing around for clues.
Read more about it by clicking here.
Canadian Singer Feist's Career Fast-forwards After iPod Ad
Countdown to stardom: Since Apple used Feist's "1234" in a commercial for its third-generation iPod Nanos last month, the Canadian singer/songwriter's bouncy number has taken on a life of its own. Not unexpectedly, "1234" shot up the iTunes Top Songs chart, but it also hit No. 4 on Nielsen SoundScan's digital songs list. Feist's third album, "The Reminder," released in April, has sold nearly a third of its 299,000 units in the past five weeks.
Read more about it by clicking here.
U.K. Partner: BlackBerry To Offer Limitless Music
Beginning next month, Research In Motion's BlackBerry phones come with a cheap, unlimited music service for the first time, marking the latest foray by a handheld-device maker into a burgeoning music arena.
Rob Lewis, CEO of British mobile music provider Omnifone, told Reuters on Tuesday his firm had inked a deal to supply the BlackBerry with unlimited tracks from Omnifone's MusicStation service, sounding the latest challenge to Apple's iTunes for the newly launched iPhone.
Read more about it by clicking here.
Wireless Speakers: Sound At Last?
Audio speakers untethered by unsightly wires have long been a consumer dream. While wireless speakers have been on the market for a few years, they've largely stalled out due to their high cost and lousy performance. Avnera says it has conquered both problems.
The company's VoiceMagic and AudioMagic chips essentially integrate all of the components -- radios, analog-to-digital converters -- needed for wireless communications on a single piece of silicon. Integration allows the company to get the price for a pair of its chips (one that receives and one that transmits) for $14 or less.
Read more about it by clicking here.
50 Top Computing Tips
When we seek expert computing advice, it isn't just for the times we have problems. We also want to know how to enhance our computing experience through tiny system and software tweaks. From improving the Internet experience to updating hardware, PC Magazine's experts have the field covered.
Read more about it by clicking here.
GETTING IN FIGHTS IS ONE THING, BUT AT THE WAFFLE HOUSE? THAT COULD RUIN YOUR IMAGE
Kid Rock was arrested Sunday after a scuffle at a Waffle House in Atlanta and spent about 12 hours in jail before being released. Rock stopped by the restaurant for a breakfast around 5 a.m., and he and five members of his entourage subsequently got into a fight with a male customer. Rock was charged with misdemeanor battery.
THE TIMES THEY ARE A DEFINITELY CHANGIN'
Nope, that's not your eyes deceiving you. That's Bob Dylan behind the wheel of a Cadillac Escalade in a new TV, online and print campaign for the vehicle that cross-promotes his XM show, Theme Time Radio Hour. Bob will host a "Cadillac-themed episode" of the show, premiering Oct. 24th, according to a joint press release. AdAge.com has posted the 60-second TV spot, which you can access from here http://adage.com/adages/article?article_id=121395.
MOVIE MUSIC
Carrie Underwood, Beyonce and Elton John will be among the performers for the first Movies Rock concert, celebrating the relationship between music and film. The show is set for Dec. 2nd at the Kodak Theatre in Los Angeles.
SATELLITE SUBSCRIBERS UP, SO ARE LOSSES
XM ended the quarter with 8.57 million subscribers, up from 7.19 million a year ago. The growth was driven by a solid increase in automotive customers despite weakness for radios purchased at retail. But XM Satellite Radio Holdings posted a wider quarterly loss due to higher marketing costs. XM said its net loss was $145.3 million, compared with a loss of $83.8 million a year earlier, despite overall increases in gross revenues.
WELL, MAYBE THAT GARAGE SALE IS OUT OF NECESSITY
A few weeks ago, Sharon Osbourne reported that she was having a major garage sale. Now a Studio City, Calif., furniture store has sued Ms. Osbourne and claims she never paid for a $26,000 king-size bed, or for drapes for the master bedroom and kitchen in her family's Hidden Hills home in California.
WINEHOUSE BUSTED
Amy Winehouse and her husband were arrested for marijuana possession in Norway last week and held overnight. They were released after paying $715 in fines.
RING-A-DING-DING
2.3 million people actually paid to have 30 seconds of T-Pain's "Buy U A Drank" on their cell phones. The single is the best-selling mastertone of 2007, according to Nielsen RingScan. That figure nearly doubles the very respectable 1.6 million digital downloads the same track has sold, according to Nielsen SoundScan, and completely dwarfs the 686,000 CDs that the album it supports - "Epiphany" -- has moved since its debut June 23rd. Yet more proof that the quality of music out there is strained and disposable.
LOVE FOR COBAIN PIC
Courtney Love will serve as an executive producer on an as-yet untitled biopic about late hubby Kurt Cobain, to be adapted for Universal Pictures.
SURPRISE, SURPRISE ... NOT!
CBS has pulled freshman series 'Viva Laughlin' off its schedule after only two episodes. If you've ever been to Laughlin, you know there is nothing "viva" about it.
MORE EVIDENCE THAT IN THE CURRENT MARKETPLACE CD PRICES SHOULD BE LOWERED MORE
"Transformers" is the top-selling DVD of the year. The robot flick has moved 8.3 million units since its release on Oct. 16th, Paramount Home Entertainment reports.
DAVE DOES ARMY
The Dave Matthews Band will play two free shows at West Point next month after the U.S. Military Academy beat out Air Force, Navy and more than 100 other colleges that participated in the World's Loudest Pep Rally contest to win a visit from the rock star.
DIDDY DOES BOOZE
Diddy has signed a multi-year deal with Diageo PLC to develop the Ciroc vodka brand for a 50-50 share in the profits.
Quotes of the week
"It's one thing to be deeply involved with a television show. It's another to be so involved that all you do is sit on a couch and watch it. It seemed that those people were just looking for an excuse to be pissed off. They wanted 'justice.' They wanted to see his brains splattered on the wall. I thought that was disgusting, frankly. The pathetic thing -- to me -- was how much they wanted his blood, after cheering him on for eight years. We don't have contempt for the audience. In fact, I think 'The Soprano's is the only show that actually gave the audience credit for having some intelligence and attention span."
-- 'Sopranos' creator David Chase, providing some insight into why he wrote the much-talked-about ending to the HBO series, in an interview included in The Sopranos: The Complete Book, scheduled to hit stores Oct. 30th."People just love it when I make an ass of myself."
-- Jessica Simpson, admitting to InStyle magazine that she told the U.S. Secretary of the Interior, "I love what you've done with the place," when visiting the White House. Well, Jessica, the fact that you are a walking-talking live blonde joke makes for so much fun. And with "The View's" Elisabeth Hasselbeck on maternity leave, Jessica will temporarily step in as the show's token young conservative on Nov. 15th and 16th. That should be worth taping."When you made Brokeback Mountain, did you have any idea what you were sitting on?"
-- Meredith Vieira, using a bad choice of words while interviewing Jake Gyllenhaal on the Today Show."I had been at Conde Nast for four years and I was just about ready to make my move on Rolling Stone. I defined myself by music magazines. I didn't think I was the entrepreneurial type. Music clips on television all day long -- who was going to watch that? It was undefined and completely appealing to me."
-- Judy McGrath, on her decision to join MTV in 1981, from an article in the N.Y. Times. Yeah, music clips on television all day long ... how great it once was. And you used to define yourself by music magazines? What happened, Judy? What the hell are you reading now?"I wasn't really into being followed around everywhere by six guys with two-way radios. I also don't want to be one of those people who are sour about it. So I decided I'd just leave. I don't need to be in the eye of the storm. I love acting, I really do love it, but I have a very hard time. It's a strange thing to call a job."
-- Renee Zellweger following that old adage, "If you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen."We stayed up to 6 a.m. I was in a nightie in the middle of the street. It was freezing. I got a little bit of a cold from it."
-- LeAnn Rimes, talking about joining Jon Bon Jovi in New York to make the video for their duet "Til We're Not Strangers.""I don't know how to answer that today."
-- Mariah Carey, responding to the question on "The View" if she had a man in her life. Gee, that wasn't a brain-twister, Mariah. A simple "yes" or "no" would have sufficed. Mariah went on to say, "Reading the Bible does work for me, because knowledge is power." Obviously, she needs to read a whole lot more.
The B-Side - 'Blips'
THE ONION (www.theonion.com) STORY OF THE WEEK:
Everyone In Hollywood Great Friends
LOS ANGELES-A study released today by the University of California, Los Angeles is sending shockwaves through the social, behavioral, and publicity sciences, after finding that everyone in Hollywood is close personal friends with everyone else in Hollywood.
"The evidence shows that our nation's show-business capital is a town of virtually boundless goodwill and camaraderie, where the backstabbing, ego-rivalry, and grudge-holding common to the rest of society do not exist," said UCLA sociology professor Gina Carlisle, lead author of the five-year, 700-page study. "The entire region is a veritable utopia of deep, abiding interpersonal affection and mutual respect."
Additionally, the report found that 98 percent of Hollywood residents "love [their friends'] work."
Read the rest and laugh here: http://tinyurl.com/2bgk4k.
The Blogs
Check out a great blog by Jerry Del Colliano, the Director Executive Programs, Clinical Professor Music Industry & Recording Arts, at the Thornton School of Music,University of Southern California, by clicking here: http://www.insidemusicmedia.blogspot.com.
Box Office
Check The Daily & Weekly Box Office (and more film info) at: www.boxofficemojo.com.
TinyURL
Check out www.tinyurl.com where you can make a smaller URL that will work for any webpage you wish to link to or reference. (As you can see, I'm using it in my news stories above!)
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