Crystal Ballin’ 2017

Last year was, of course, 2016, and now that we’re nearly a week into 2017, 2016 seems so ... last year. It is what it is (didn’t Gandhi say that – or was it Thoreau?), and since I like to think of myself as a forward-thinking, what’s next kind of guy, I spent my holiday break noodling about the future of Country music and radio over the next 12 months. Quickly realizing I’m grossly underqualified (not to mention, underpaid) as a prognosticator, I tapped my go-to resource: the vast and unpaid research department, better known as all of you.

“Look into your crystal ball,” I implored, consulting industry pros who – when it comes to radio and music – I consider actual ballers in their field. In this context, “baller” as is defined in the online slang dictionary; someone who is “Extremely good or impressive; excellent.”

For thought starters, I wondered about the following:

- Music trends – What are you seeing/feeling out there?

- Are we making the needed progress developing female artists?

- Can the format rebound overall from a year where every month was down, on a year-to-year basis? (PPM Markets)

- What artists are emerging – to the next level or just out of nowhere?

- What are your hopes and dreams for Country in 2017?

So, here you go – the unofficial forecast for ’17, courtesy of 10 nascent Nostradamuses (one, anonymously) who are a helluva lot more fun than your run-of-the-mill Doppler 6,000. Let’s save these and read ‘em on January 1st, 2018!

Music Trends:

“I see a trend toward a more balanced format. I wouldn't call it a full shift toward traditional sounds, but I think the format is best served when there is an offering for programmers of whatever works best for their market and competitive situation. When programmers can include Sam Hunt, Chris Lane, Jon Pardi, and Midland on their playlists, and listeners are responding positively to all four, we create more variety within the genre without losing who we are.” - Brent Michaels – KUZZ/Bakersfield

“A slight shift toward traditional. Craig Campbell, Chris Janson, and William Michael Morgan have some killer traditional ballads. Ironically, I'm initially seeing great acceptance for these types of songs with younger listeners.” - Joel Raab – Joel Raab Associates

“I'm cautiously optimistic. We've seen this story before in the 90s. Rock/Pop was bad. We saw P2s and P3s act kinda like P1s, and everyone started chasing those people. It put the format out of whack, because as soon as Pop/Rock got better, those people migrated back, and we were left with dissatisfied real P1s. I think we've gone through that cycle again. There's always been a desire by our P1s to have a traditional sonic sound to our mix, but too many PDs chased younger Pop/Rock/Party listeners. Additionally, I'm seeing more emphasis on downloads and Shazam now than ever from labels.” - Anonymous PD

“I’m hoping to see a swing back to more traditional styles like William Michael Morgan – and more songs about real life. There are some great songs out there somewhere about the trials and tribulations of life in America, and we need to hear them on the radio.” - Buzz Jackson – KIIM/Tucson

“Forcing a certain sound to anticipate a swing back to traditional seems counterproductive, but Jon Pardi and Chris Young sure are kicking that door wide open for the more traditional sound to have an even larger presence.” - Drew Bland – WKKA/Orlando

“Everything is cyclical…and we’re still in the correction phase of the cycle. I think there’s a more conservative, traditional purity re-emerging in the format.” - Bob Barnett – WBEE/Rochester, NY

“2017 is going to be about options. Traditional, new, Rock influenced, Pop influenced, etc. It will be up to the programmer on a local level to decide what is fitting their station personality and what is serving their listener.” - Brook Stephens – KZPK/St. Cloud, MN

Female Artist Development

“The Grammys got it right, and now it’s time for everyone else. Female voices are part of the fabric and need/deserve to be heard. I’m still perplexed that ‘My Church’ (Maren Morris) didn’t reach #1. It was the breakthrough song of the year! Let’s look around and see what fans are consuming on every level. When a song resonates with the fans, like RaeLynn’s ‘Love Triangle,’ it deserves a shot.” - Leslie Fram – CMT

“I believe we have the next wave of Carrie and Miranda. That would be Kelsea and Maren. Doesn't mean the hits on the charts from all women have caught the men totally yet, but it does mean we have two fresh-faced arena headliners in the making, which would double the amount we have had the past number of years! I'm waiting for the Summer of 2020 football stadium tour ‘Ladies Night: Kelsea And Maren In The Round,’ co headlining tour.” - Phathead – WJVC/Nassau, NY

“Grammy nominations for Maren Morris and Kelsea Ballerini. We still have a way to go, though. It's still tough to get a good balance of female voice in a given hour on a typical Country station.” - Joel Raab

“If we're being honest, Country is still a very male-dominated format. Three years ago, it was disappointing wondering who would fill out the ACM and CMA Female Vocalist categories. Since then, Kelsea Ballerini, Maren Morris, Cam, Jana Kramer, and others have charted hits that have made them part of the conversation with front-runners Carrie Underwood and Miranda Lambert. Maddie & Tae and Runaway June have also released projects. It's a step in the right direction – but most importantly, the music is good…it's good to see some very talented female songwriters and vocalists start to get their due.” – Brent Michaels

“I don't know that the female thing is all that new. If you really think about it, at any point in the last 30 years, have we had any more than three truly superstar females at one time? At one time, we had Shania, Faith, and the Dixie Chicks. Martina was close, but not a true superstar, because she wasn't selling out arenas. Later, Taylor hit it big and Carrie was a superstar. Miranda was almost there. I do think we're in a better spot with females right now than a couple of years ago. We have Carrie, Miranda, and Kelsea. Maren is looking like she might make a jump, but she's not a superstar yet. And you could argue Kelsea is not quite there yet. I guess you could put Little Big Town in that category now since Karen [Fairchild] has taken over most of the lead vocals.” - Anonymous

“I still don’t see a lot of females on playlists, but it’s refreshing to see Carrie, Kelsea, and Maren riding nice and high when looking at streaming and sales numbers.” - Drew Bland

“When writing image promos it goes: Tim, Miranda, Kenny, Blake, Carrie, Keith. It’s hard to find another power female artist.”- Chuck Geiger – Cherry Creek CREEK/Wenatchee, WA OM

“It feels like more of an over-compensation rather than a correction of the course. I’ll believe it’s real when we see some of the female acts emerge as bonafide, sustainable ‘Stars’ in the format. - Bob Barnett

Can the format rebound overall from a year where every month was down, on a year-to-year basis? (PPM Markets)

“It can rebound on some level. I think we need to be a mass appeal format again and not chase the young party demo. Country is a song AND artist driven format. We need to stop chasing the party crowd and build a solid format. The biggest competition and the biggest hurdle we face is the smart phone. I don't know if we will ever see the numbers we once did. Too much competition and fragmentation from the smart phone...much like TV went through when niche cable channels became prominent.

I truly think a locally-focused radio station that super-serves its community will always fare better than a jukebox. But our challenge as an industry is developing talent that is engaging, entertaining, and talking about things that truly matter to the listener and their community, and also for those personalities to be in the community and visible in the community. My Luke Bryan song is just as good as anyone's. It's what's between the songs and how we connect digitally and on air that will separate us.” - Anonymous

“I feel there is a lot of wind in our sails right now. Big songs and big artists producing some of the best music we’ve had in a couple of years. Creativity and a little risk taking are coming back in the music, and that can only help our format.” - Drew Bland

“It's all about the meter placement and a captivating, entertaining sound of the station to encourage listenership.” - Chuck Geiger

Emerging Artists In 2017:

“Three predictions of artists taking it to ‘the next level’ in 2017: Jon Pardi, Drake White, Brett Eldredge. Three new artists who we'll all know this time next year: Runaway June, Luke Combs, Midland.” - Brent Michaels

“2017 breakout star from out of nowhere: Russell Dickerson. Another start-up breaks a stud! ‘Yours’ is a monster. 2017 breakout song: ‘Ring On Every Finger’ by LoCash, taking this insane duo to the next level. Breakout live act in ‘17: Have you been to a Dan + Shay show? Energy ramped up to 10. These boys are on the move!”- Phathead

“I’m so excited about Charlie Worsham’s new music – it’s a total game-changer and should be embraced. He has a song called ‘Cut Your Groove’ that will make you wanna jump up and down with joy! Emerging artists that have the writing chops and are overall triple threats include Clare Dunn, Devon Dawson, Ryan Hurd, Caitlyn Smith, Carly Pearce, Brandon Ray, Jackie Lee, Jacob Davis, Jillian Jacqueline, Maggie Rose, Michael Tyler, Midland, Runaway June, Ryan Beaver, Seth Ennis, Walker Hayes, Ryan Follese, Kree Harrison, David Fanning...can you tell I can’t wait for this year?” - Leslie Fram

“If you're not coding Brett Eldredge as a superstar yet, you will be soon. I think the others that have a chance for me to code as a superstar soon are Kelsea and Cole Swindell. If I take out my crystal ball, I think the following have a chance within a few years to be coded as a superstar: Maren Morris, Dan + Shay, Jon Pardi, Chris Stapleton, Old Dominion. The following have a chance to get to B level soon: Granger Smith, High Valley, Chris Janson, Tyler Farr, Drake White.” - Anonymous

“Luke Combs and High Valley. They pull a solid crowd and get an amazing reaction everywhere they play.” - Drew Bland

“I’m really getting excited about Maren Morris – but it’s still pretty early in her career. I’m hoping Kelsea Ballerini’s maturity emerges on her second CD. It feels like Thomas Rhett and Brett Eldredge have inched up a few notches in the past 12-24 months. It’s getting harder and harder for artists to be anointed as a ‘superstar’ in the format. Not sure why.” - Bob Barnett

Hopes And Dreams For 2017:

“That Country as a whole remains one of the most listened to formats in music. That as a radio genre we maintain an identity – where people can listen to Country radio and know it's Country. That certain stations can champion certain singles and artists because it's what's best for their audience. That radio, in general, continues to provide listeners with an experience they cannot receive from any other type of music service. And that Country artists continue their longstanding tradition of caring more about their fans and radio than any other genre or format (we're all partners, and ultimately the fans are the most important part); it's what truly makes us unique.” - Brent Michaels

“I'd like to see a new superstar emerge. Two would be even better. I think we need more songs to sing along with. Listeners love that.” - Joel Raab

“Be open-minded, and support female artists!” - Leslie Fram

“In my perfect world, PDs would realize that Country has always been and will always be a song AND artist driven format. That we are different than CHR. We burn in hits, we don't burn them out. I hope labels see the handwriting on the wall and let go of singles sooner. I hope PDs have more courage to customize their stations for their market and play what works in their market, not just follow the charts. I dream of a day when it doesn't appear that the heads of all the major label groups have gotten together at a bar and figured out who gets a number one planned out for the next three months. I long for the days when label groups were not as large and the best songs truly made it to #1, and some actually stayed at #1 for several weeks.” - Anonymous

“The format historically works best when it’s mass-appeal instead of narrow-appeal. The ‘Bro-sound’ over-took the end product, and the older end of the audience began to feel that the music wasn’t speaking to them any longer. Country had lost its heart; it sold its soul to the Pop devil. It’s going to be a challenge to win those people back. My hope is that we find a healthy balance in our product and that as a format, we re-connect with 40+ year old women again.” - Bob Barnett

“That we keep the listener as our #1 priority.” - Drew Bland

“Please, please, please: Keith Urban please go seven or eight deep on ‘Ripcord.’ You're four #1 singles in; let's make this the Country version of Def Leppard's ‘Hysteria’ and go seven deep! Best album I've heard since Rush’s ‘Moving Pictures.’ Also, the follow up to ‘Montevallo.’ This is like waiting to see how GNR follows up ‘Appetite For Destruction.’ (Yes, another old Rock reference!!! That's my vibe!). You can do it, Sam. Most anticipated tour and album in a long time.” - Phathead

As always, appreciate your feedback, comments and suggestions. Happy New Year, all, and here’s hoping 2017 is a fantastic year for this great format we all love.