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10 Questions with ... RJ Bell
July 2, 2019
Have an opinion? Add your comment below. On the content side, the paradox that nearly all new entrants are struggling with is that biz executives don't really understand sports betting, while sports betting experts are not qualified business executives. Sports betting and business are perhaps the only two things I am truly expert at (with techniques to maximize value at buffets as the only other possibility). Having a CEO who understands both sides gives Pregame.com a tremendous edge. Obvious million-dollar mistakes are being made right now by our major competitors. And no matter how nicely they ask, I'm not going to smarten them up. I'm not giving away a secret in saying that typically radio guys like to talk. With this much talent, you would expect competition for air-time. But each of them understands that fighting for their personal word-count would hurt the show. So they don't. They focus on something bigger
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BRIEF CAREER SYNOPSIS:
Founder/CEO, Pregame.com. Frequent guest on major radio and TV shows. Launched "Straight Outta Vegas wirh RJ Bell" on Fox Sports Radio in 2017.
1. The normal way we start these things is to ask how and why our subjects got into radio, but for you, the question is: What got you interested in sports betting in the first place, beyond the average person's interest? What got you into it in to the professional level?
I grew up in a small coal-mining town in Ohio, about one hour from Pittsburgh. Less than 30 miles away was Steubenville, the hometown of Jimmy the Greek. Football "spot-sheets" (called parlay cards these days in Vegas) were everywhere, and I clearly remember being 14 years old and betting my first one: $20 to win $200 on a four-teamer (ties lose!). I won and was paid off with a bank envelope containing 10 twenty-dollar bills. Each week, I bet one $20 four-teamer after that, till the envelope was empty.
After High School, I went to college at Ohio State, majoring in Finance. I graduated Summa Cum Laude (my mom was very proud), got accepted at a number of Ivy League law schools, but decided to continue betting sports and playing poker instead (my mom was not so proud). I figured many people knew more finance than me, and I figured many people knew more sports betting than me, but not many knew more about both - so I moved to Las Vegas. My main motivation for moving to that "city in the desert" was to find and learn from the most successful handicappers. I played poker exclusively at the Mirage (the biggest room in town before the Bellagio opened) and hung around the Stardust sportsbook (the source of the World Opener on most games at that time). From the many guys I met, I learned not only what to do, but also - perhaps more importantly - what not to do.
2. Okay, with that taken care of, how and why did you take the step from building Pregame.com to radio and podcasting? And why?
NBA referee Tim Donaghy’s scandal was one of the biggest sports stories of 2007. I uncovered incriminating statistical patterns – luckily, they were easily understandable, so my analysis went viral. In a few short weeks, I appeared as a guest on dozens of the biggest shows in the country – both sports (including Outside The Lines, SportsCenter, First Take) and news (including Nightline, CBS This Morning, CNN). At the time, I had little media experience - mostly local radio. Those bright lights got the best of me a few times early on. Even so, I was encouraged by the positive response. The public craved trustworthy Las Vegas insight. For decades there had been the screaming TV touts, but they were too sleazy for legit media organizations to rely upon. My approach was analytical, with more than a little personality; my goal was to be both informative and entertaining.
As the Donaghy dust settled, I set out to leverage the notoriety and relationships that stemmed from that lucky break. One key early insight was how overworked most radio producers were. I found that when I provided them with compelling Vegas tidbits, they would often pass them on to the on-air talent. And when I did get the chance to appear as I guest, I prepared heavily for each opportunity. With every interaction my focus was on making the producer’s job easier. I rightly figured that the producers would highly value both the differentiated content and the reliability. It’s perhaps ironic that now, with my own show, I consistently drive the producers crazy!
Why did I put so much effort into mainstream media? The lead generation value was no doubt significant – but even more important was the trust built up with the audience … hit after hit, year after year. My willingness to go on any quality show and answer any question won the audience over, allowing them to eventually conclude that I had expertise to share and nothing to hide.
3. It seems like the sky's the limit for the sports gambling business now that it's becoming legal outside of Vegas; as someone established in the business for years, what do you see as the possible pitfalls, if there are any, for the industry as it expands? Do you expect a wave of businesses and touts rushing to take advantage of the expansion? And do you see Vegas remaining the undisputed epicenter of legal sports betting or will the expansion threaten its position?
The primary likely pitfall on the sportsbook side would be the states thinking sports bettors are like lottery players. Sports bettors are used to risking $11 to win $10. The resulting theoretical win for the books is less than 5%. A Lottery’s win percentage is often 10 TIMES that. So we just have to hope that politicians are not myopic and greedy. LOL.
On the content side, the paradox that nearly all new entrants are struggling with is that biz executives don’t really understand sports betting, while sports betting experts are not qualified business executives. Sports betting and business are perhaps the only two things I am truly expert at (with techniques to maximize value at buffets as the only other possibility). Having a CEO who understands both sides gives Pregame.com a tremendous edge. Obvious million-dollar mistakes are being made right now by our major competitors. And no matter how nicely they ask, I’m not going to smarten them up. Believing the domain expertise is unnecessary shows disrespect to the sports betting marketplace. Pregame.com is a two-time Inc. 5000 company, and that absolutely could not have happened without dedicated and talented teams on both the business side and the Straight Outta Vegas side.
The city of Las Vegas, on the other hand, is a longshot to remain the epicenter of legal sports betting. The reason is Business 101 simple: decades of monopoly has left the sportsbook decision makers in Vegas fat and happy. For as long as anyone can remember, the status quo meant another big paycheck for the bosses, so there was no reason to take risks. Innovation was nearly non-existent. And now that there’s a national opportunity, the tired old operators are not up to the challenge. I hold out hope that the next generation of Vegas operators will be. Vegas certainly has a number of edges over other locales, and I hope the city’s dominance is soon restored.
4. You've been a familiar presence on so many shows -- Carolla, Cowherd, Kevin and Bean, Stephen A. -- and now you have your own show. What does having a daily show allow you to do that your myriad other appearances couldn't?
We control the rundown. That was a deal-breaker for me with the various radio deals that I considered. Similar to the biz executive/betting expert disconnect, there is a producer/betting expert disconnect on many of the new TV shows in this space. It’s nobody’s fault. It makes sense that a TV producer doesn’t understand an unfamiliar topic; and it also makes sense that a network wouldn’t trust such a big budget to some betting guy.
That’s where FOX Sports Radio’s Scott Shapiro comes in. I’ve known Scott since his Mike & Mike days (yes, he was one of those producers) – and it’s not an exaggeration to say that Straight Outta Vegas would not have happened without him. The dirty secret of radio is how little the quality of the content matters to some companies. Sales. Sales. Sales. FSR executes as well as any network in the sales realm, but not at the expense of quality content. This rare ethos – combined with Scott’s passion for radio – is what won me over. He and Don Martin stressed from the start of negotiations that they wanted an RJ Bell production. And, after about 30 or so red-lined versions of the contract going back and forth, even their attorneys agreed!
Keep in mind, we are talking about the first and only daily sports betting radio show on a major national network. It took guts for Scott and Don to take this chance, and I’m thrilled that the early results – both in affiliate count and ratings – have been outstanding.
You know how people say “I couldn’t do this alone” and you wonder if they mean it. Make no mistake: I COULDN’T DO THIS ALONE. Scott fought to get us a Vegas producer on-site (Atlanta radio veteran Daryle Ashurst) – and the show benefits greatly from the smooth mechanics (plus the fan’s perspective) from Jonas Knox; and my two steady Pro Bettors Steve Fezzik and Brad Powers.
I’m not giving away a secret in saying that typically radio guys like to talk. With this much talent, you would expect competition for air-time. But each of them understands that fighting for their personal word-count would hurt the show. So they don’t. They focus on something bigger. We all understand that the pioneering nature of Straight Outta Vegas means our success (or lack thereof) will likely have wide-ranging effects for the entire industry. As the show’s lead, I get no credit in this regard. I always get my time. On the other hand, each of others focusing on something bigger than their egos is one of the under-discussed factors in the show’s success.
5. There are going to be a lot of people who haven't previously bet on sports coming into the new books ready to get started. What's the first thing they need to know and follow before placing that bet?
Winning is NOT easy. It’s very unlikely you will win over the long-term. So, unless you’ve proven otherwise, bet only recreational amounts. We stress this daily. Nothing is more important for a bettor to understand.
6. I'm curious what the effects of various new media entrants have had on sports betting, namely a) social media, where news breaks faster than ever (e.g., Woj breaking NBA news in tweets), and b) sites focusing on advanced stats, like baseball Sabermetrics. Has the way you and others develop your picks changed with the addition of these elements, or is it still more about the contacts you develop and the inside information you can gather outside of what's being traded on Twitter or Fangraphs?
Before the Internet, the key edge a winning pro sports bettor had was possessing MORE information than the average bettor. Now, the key edge is how to interrupt and weight the same information – because everyone has access to pretty much the same info.
This concept applies not matter the info we are discussing. For example, Pregame.com has the only free source of cash percentage splits on each game. Imagine Steelers hosting Ravens … our GameCenter tells the world that 70% of the cash is on Pitt (30% Baltimore). What separates winning and losing is the handicapper’s ability to assess how important this factor is, and if the market is currently pricing it correctly. Same with Fangraphs or a Twitter injury report, etc.
7. Who were and are your inspirations and influences?
The biggest break I ever got was getting to know Colin Cowherd on a personal level. Not only is he one of only two must-listens for me each day, but also the level of difficulty in hosting his show solo is literally awe-inspiring. I couldn’t imagine having a better media mentor.
My other daily must-listen is Stephen A. Smith. Our styles are so different, but the originality of his style inspires me to take chances with mine. Off the air, on multiple occasions, he’s shown me how loyal he is to even his casual friends.
Adam Carolla – talk about pioneers … literally a digital trailblazer. When I’m able to make him chuckle even once, it’s one of my biggest accomplishments of the week!
Strictly from the distance of a fan:
David Letterman – it’s easy to forget how rare irreverence was on TV in the ‘80s.
Howard Stern – most fans would typical reference the freedom of expression that he fought for, but for me, he’s the ultimate ringleader of an audio circus.
In the industry:
Scott Shapiro – a radio exec that actually loves radio.
Vince Kates (Colin’s ESPN producer) – a next-level radio thinker. Getting to know him and what a producer can be, has undoubtedly made the life of my producers more demanding.
Roj Grobes (ESPN LA producer) – If two guys agree, you only need one of them. Roj rarely agrees, and he’s rarely wrong.
John Ireland (ESPN LA host) – So many radio guys are sour, even though millions would trade places with them in a second. Ireland knows how good he’s got it, and he appreciates it – and he gives back whenever he can.
John Kincade (Atlanta, The Fan) – Influenced me on how to weave business acumen into a radio show. Oh, and the first guy to ever put me on nationally.
Steve Cofield (ESPN Las Vegas host) – a Straight Outta Vegas weekend alum. He taught me the dirty secrets of local radio that I wish I could forget.
JT The Brick and Tomm Looney (formerly FSR) – I’ll always think of them as a team. JT with the fan’s passion, and Looney with the unstudied, flawless delivery masking a deep love of the craft of radio.
8. Of what are you most proud?
From coal miner’s son to national radio host sounds impressive on the surface, but I would be foolish not to understand a lot of that had to do with luck, and a lot had to do with God-given skill…and sure, some hard work I’ll take credit for. But it came naturally.
What hasn’t come naturally is owing so much to others. For the 10+ years I’ve operated Pregame.com, there has been a team – but to be candid, I didn’t think of it the right way. My way was … jump on my back everyone and let’s go. Yes, I had the heaviest load, but I also got the comfort of being in control, and not being reliant.
Straight Outta Vegas could not happen without this team, both on the biz side (taking on roles that I had to let go for the show), and the SOV team (so often doing better than I could in certain roles, even if I had the time to do that job). The fact that so many elite people have enough faith in me to join this journey is both scary, and what I’m most proud of.
9. Fill in the blank: I can't make it through the day without _______________.
…an hour outside of the whirlwind to think long enough to think differently.
10. What would you say is the most important lesson you've learned so far?
To live outside the law, you must be honest.
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